| Posted : Monday, December 31 2007 / 20:07 PM |
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BCS Bowl Predictions
The end of the year is here and the MP prognosticators didn't do to badly on our 1st try at this predicting thing. We went bowling in our 1st attempt, but we were looking for the championship. In week 14, SeminoleDynasty had his best week of the year going a perfect 6-0. Austin added in a 4-2 week for a nice showing. For the bowl season and final prediction article of 2007, we'll key in on the BCS bowl games and the BCS National Championship game.
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The end of the year is here and the MP prognosticators didn't do to badly on our 1st try at this predicting thing. We went bowling in our 1st attempt, but we were looking for the championship. In week 14, SeminoleDynasty had his best week of the year going a perfect 6-0. Austin added in a 4-2 week for a nice showing. For the bowl season and final prediction article of 2007, we'll key in on the BCS bowl games and the BCS National Championship game.
ROSE BOWL
Illinois vs Southern California
Jan. 1, 2008 3:30pm ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
The Illini make their way to the Rose Bowl as an at-large in the BCS selection process. They finished up 6-2 in the Big 10, good for 2nd, and 9-3 overall. In their regular season finally they beat Northwestern 41-22. They are riding a 4 game winning streak coming into the bowl game.
The Illinois offense has been hit and miss this year behind quarterback Juice Williams. Williams showed flashes of the star he could be in their last 3 games. He's joined in the backfield by running back Rashard Mendenhall who averages 127.2 yards per game on the ground and 7th in the nation in yards rushing at 1,526 yards. The Illini offense averages 28.8 points per game and 423.3 yards per game.
On defense the Illini were better than average. They ranked 19th in scoring defense allowing 19.5 points per game. They also allowed 355.4 yards per game. In a game like this they will need to be on their top as USC has plenty of talent to put points on the board in a home game atmosphere.
Southern California makes their way into the Rose Bowl as Pac 10 Champions. They finished 7-2 in the Pac 10 and 10-2 overall. They beat their rival, UCLA, in the season finale 24-7. They too are riding a 4 game winning streak heading into this contest.
On offense the Trojans are led by quarterback John David Booty. Booty is thought to be a high end prospect in the NFL in the 2008 draft. The Trojan offense on the ground is led by Chauncey Washington who averages 81.3 yards rushing. The Trojans average 31.3 points and 418.4 yards per game.
Defensively is where the 2007 Trojans made their money. The Trojan defense ranked 4th in scoring defense allowing 15.9 points per game. They also rank 2nd in total defense allowing 258.8 yards per game. If they can contain Juice and Mendenhall, they should pave the way to a Trojan Rose Bowl victory.
My thought is the Trojan defense has the experience to contain Juice as they faced some dual threat QBs this season. The Trojan offense will need some play makers to step up but I believe they will. I like the Trojans to ride the defense and get enough points to come away with the win.
USC 27 Illinois 19
Austinwolv's add:
Zook won't be able to employ the monetary resources to secure a victory in this game like he has in recruiting. Besides, if he could, he doesn't have access to Will Farrel and the money that USC can throw around in recent years. No reason to think that USC won't show up to play, so while the Illini pass rush is actually very aggressive and talented, the back of the Illinois defense won't be able to contain the USC receivers, TE, and RBs in space. On offense, Illinois just doesn't have enough weapons to worry an USC defense that routinely faces PAC10 offenses with multiple talented receivers, something that Illinois doesn't have. The Trojans gang up on Mendenhall and Benn, leaving Pasadena with another Rose Bowl win.
USC 100, Illinois 3....because Pete Carroll lines up at WR for them.
SUGAR BOWL
Georgia vs Hawaii
Jan. 1, 2008 7pm ET FOX
Austinwolv's take:
The biggest draw to this game is if June Jones will have to eat his words on saying that Colt Brennan is a better QB than Tim Tebow. The Georgia defense is stout enough to provide that test, and the Bulldogs are amongst the teams playing their best ball at the end of the year. The Bulldogs are giving up 21 points per game, but have the 19th-ranked total defense in the country.
This is a good matchup since the Rainbow Warriors (tell me you just didn't smirk a bit) score the most points per game in the country (46ppg). Yes, we know the Bulldogs play in the SEC and the Rainbow Warriors (quit snickering) play in the.....well, whatever conference they play in. You can learn that later if they pull off the upset.
Georgia's offense actually isn't all that impressive, but they can run the ball and keep it away from Hawaii. Hawaii gives up 24 points per game, but the worrisome part for them is that they give up 130 rushing yards per game to competition that isn't as talented as Georgia.
Thus, I think the Bulldogs play keepaway, holding the ball high over their heads as the Rainbow Warriors try to slap it away.
Georgia 37, Hawaii 31
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I think Hawaii will put points on the board do to June Jones offense, but I don't see them holding the Bulldogs down in this one. Georgia and Matt Stafford get more points and pull out the win.
Georgia 34 Hawaii 27
FIESTA BOWL
Oklahoma vs West Virginia
Jan. 2, 2008 7pm ET FOX
Austinwolv's take:
Slaton, Pat White, Bradford, Allen, Murray......some big names in this game, and a couple offenses that can both put up points in a hurry. In fact, the two teams are less than a yard apart in total offense per game. Oklahoma averages roughly 5 points per game more than WVU in scoring offense.
Ok, look at the defenses you say to help determine the winner? Well, now we got two Top20 defenses facing off (total defense). WVU is one point better than Oklahoma in scoring defense, which is what really matters, instead of just yardage.
Hey, WVU fans.....quit whining about losing your big-star coach and keep reading. I'll try not to use big words. Your team IS playing in a BCS game if you hadn't noticed through the drunken lamenting and heckling of the guy that actually made people outside West Virginia take notice of Morgantown.
On paper, this looks like a great matchup. Two very similar teams in terms of offensive and defensive stats. Thus, what about intangibles?
Well, WVU lost its' coach if you haven't heard. How will that affect them? Stoops has slipped a bit in big games the past couple years. Will he have his team primed for a big game? Will Pat White get injured? Will Slaton play as well as he did last year compared to his plateau this season?
Assuming all are healthy, one can't discount that Oklahoma has more weapons in the passing game than WVU. Thus, since all else is fairly equal, I'll go with the assumption that there is a bit more pressure on the WVU defense because OU can run and throw effectively.
OU 41, WVU 35
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I agree Oklahoma will take this one. West Virginia has the offensive players, but they lost their coach Rich Rodriguez and Rich didn't leave town on good terms. I think Oklahoma's offensive weapons are more vast than the Mountaineers and thus the Sooners get the win.
Oklahoma 31 West Virginia 17
ORANGE BOWL
Kansas vs Virginia Tech
Jan. 3, 2008 7pm ET FOX
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Kansas had a dream season this year. They are making their way to the Orange Bowl as an at-large in the BCS selection process. They finished up 2nd in the Big 12 North division after losing their season finale to Missouri 36-28. Their regular season record was 11-1 and 7-1 in the Big 12.
The Kansas offense was a juggernaut all season. They rank #2 in scoring offense averaging 44.3 points per game. They also rank 6th in total offense averaging 491.1 yards per game. They are led by quarterback Todd Reesing who average 271.6 yards passing per game. He ranks 20th in the country in that category. He also threw for 32 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions.
On defense the Jayhawks were just as awesome. They rank #5 in scoring defense allowing 16 points per game. They also rank 14th in total defense allowing 318.3 yards per game. Their defense could be the catalyst for a blowout in this game if they can curtail the Hokie offense.
Virginia Tech makes their way into the Orange Bowl as ACC Champions. They won the ACC Championship game over Boston College 30-16. The Hokies are 11-2 overall and 7-2 in the ACC. They are riding a 5 game winning streak coming into the Orange Bowl.
The Hokie offense seemed to come to life just as running back Brandon Ore found his groove. Quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon hit their spots at the same time. Glennon is the passer and Taylor is the runner. All facets of the offense improved as the offensive line jelled. The Hokie offense averaged 29.3 points per game and 332.4 yards per game. The Hokie offense will need to keep them in this one by eating up clock and allowing their defense to get plenty of rest.
On defense the Hokies were their usual dominant selves. They finished 2nd in scoring defense allowing 15.5 points per game as well as ranking 5th in total defense allowing 293.3 yards per game. They will need to be on their top game if they want to slow down the Kansas offense. As always the Hokie special teams should play a huge part in this contest.
I'm going to take Kansas in this game. They've played consistently well all year. They have had some tough games while Virginia Tech hasn't played as consistent. I like Kansas to get up early and not look back.
Kansas 31 Virginia Tech 16
Austinwolv's add:
When in doubt, I always side with defense. Defense is generally more consistent and doesn't suffer the timing problems that offenses do during long breaks from game action. Virginia Tech has a really good defense, as in one that is only giving up 15 points per game. Kansas couldn't beat a Mizzou team that gives up 24 per game.
Hokies 28, Kansas 27
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
LSU vs Ohio State
Jan. 7th, 2008 7pm ET FOX
SeminoleDynasty's take:
LSU makes their way into the BCS Championship game as the #2 ranked team. They are the SEC Champions after defeating Tennessee in the SEC Championship game 21-14. They finished the regular season 11-2 and 6-2 in the SEC.
On offense the Tigers have a potent one with quarterback Matt Flynn leading the charge. The Tigers rank 12th in scoring offense with an average of 38.7 points per game. They also rank 20th in total offense averaging 448.2 yards per game. The leading ground gainer is running back Jacob Hester. Hester has run for over 1,000 yards this season and averages 78.2 yards per game. Flynn has some help at quarterback in Ryan Perrilloux who comes in to change the pace up a little with his running game. Their top play maker is wide out Early Doucet who hasn't had the year he'd hoped due to nagging injuries, but should be at the top of his game for this one.
On defense the Tigers started off intense. They were #1 for the 1st half of the season in both scoring and total defense. Kirston Pittman was the man in charge on the defensive front and should help the defense force the Ohio State offense into bad situations. For the year the LSU defense finished ranked 20th in scoring defense allowing 19.6 points per game as well as finishing 3rd in total defense allowing 283.8 yards per game. If they can control the line, they should give limit Ohio State from getting too many points in this one.
Ohio State is the BCS #1 with a 11-1 record and 7-1 in the Big 10. They are the Big 10 champs. Ohio State's only loss of the year came against Illinois 28-21.
The Buckeyes offense is nothing to write home about, but they do have one of the better running backs in the nation in Chris Wells. Wells averages 121.9 yards per game which puts him at 13th nationally. He has run for over 1,400 yards this year. At quarterback Todd Boeckman is one who will try not to lose it for you. He isn't spectacular, but serviceable. He threw for 23 touchdowns on the year. His top target is wide out Brian Robiskie who had 50 of Boeckmans 176 completions. He also caught 10 of the 23 touchdowns. The Buckeye offense averages 32 points per game and 397.1 yards per game.
The Buckeye defense is where they make or break. Their defense has been at the top of many of the statistical categories this season. They rank #1 in both scoring defense allowing 10.7 points per game and total defense allowing 225.3 yards per game. They will need to continue this type of dominance against a potent LSU offense if the Buckeyes are to come home with another mythical National Championship.
My opinion is the LSU Tigers run rough shot over the Buckeyes much like Florida did to them last season. The speed will be too much for the Buckeyes to handle especially if they don't control both lines of scrimmage and get Chris Wells going early.
LSU 38 Ohio State 20
Austinwolv's add:
I don't buy the overall team speed thing. It is overplayed by the talking heads on ESPN every year. It comes down to teams that are prepared and those that aren't.
Instead, I think the key here is that LSU's offense is much more dynamic in terms of having options than OSU's. If LSU shuts down Wells/OSU rushing game, OSU's passing game just isn't enough to carry them, especially against an aggressive LSU front and defensive secondary that is used to seeing big-game action.
Now, I don't believe the LSU passing game is unstoppable either, but if things get in a pinch, LSU has the option that OSU doesn't......going to a second QB who is athletic and can give a different look.
The key overall for LSU? If Glenn Dorsey is healthy or not, and how well he plays. Their defense is very disruptive with him healthy, but it can be exploited if he isn't.
LSU 35, OSU 21
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