| Posted : Friday, November 23 2007 / 12:11 PM |
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Week 13 NCAA predictions
In week 12, Austinwolv and SeminoleDynasty were more like Duke than LSU. Austin went 3-3, cause I'm going to give him credit on the Ohio State pick since Henne wasn't exactly 100%. SeminoleDynasty went an awful 2-4. How will both do this week ?
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In week 12, Austinwolv and SeminoleDynasty were more like Duke than LSU. Austin went 3-3, cause I'm going to give him credit on the Ohio State pick since Henne wasn't exactly 100%. SeminoleDynasty went an awful 2-4. You have to forgive both of us on the Oregon pick though cause that was made before Dixon was injured. On the year Austin moves to 41-25 while SeminoleDynasty moves to 43-29. Both guys figure if they want to get that "brass ring", they will need to step up their picking skills. For week 13, the guys chose Texas @ Texas A&M, Tennessee @ Kentucky, Alabama @ Auburn, Southern California @ Arizona State, Virginia Tech @ Virginia, and Missouri @ Kansas. This week you'll find a few extra score predictions at the end, but no write up due to the short week here at Thanksgiving. Have a Happy Thanksgiving from AW, SD, and the rest of the Madden Planet community.
Southern California @ Arizona State
Nov. 22, 8pm ET ESPN
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Southern Cal is ranked 11th in the country with a record of 9-2. The Trojans still have a shot at the Pac 10, but they need to win out and have Oregon lose to either UCLA or Oregon State. The Trojans are led by quarterback John David Booty. Booty has averaged 217.9 yards through the air with 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Running back Chauncey Washington leads things on the ground averaging close to 85 yards per game. The Trojans are averaging 30.7 points per game and 407.6 yards per game. The Trojans had the week off and should be well prepared for the Sun Devils.
The defense is where the Trojans win their games. They are ranked 6th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 16 points per game as well as ranked 3rd in total defense allowing 267.9 yards per game. The Trojans have been pressuring quarterbacks but their ends haven't been racking up sacks this year. Their linebackers get pressure on blitz packages led by Keith Rivers. They will need to continue to pressure Arizona State to pull off the win in Tempe.
The Sun Devils are ranked 7th in the nation with a record of 9-1. They have a shot at the Pac 10 championship as well if they win out and Oregon falls. The Sun Devils also had the week off and should have used it wisely to figure a way to move the ball on the Trojans stout defense. The Devils are led by quarterback Rudy Carpenter and running backs Keegan Herring and Ryan Torain. Carpenter averages 252.8 yards through the air with 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Those 3 guys will need to do more than their share to keep the Trojan defense honest.
Arizona State's defense is one of the best this season as well. They rank 14th in scoring defense allowing 18 points per game as well as rank 20th in total defense allowing 318.9 yards per game. Who says teams don't play defense in the Pac 10? The Sun Devils defense will need to pressure Booty into rash decision making and force 3 and outs to get Carpenter and crew on the field often. They cannot allow Booty to play pitch and catch all day.
I think USC comes out on top in this one. Their defense has a little more than the Sun Devils defense. I think Booty will have enough time to pass on the Devils and allow his group of skill players to make some plays.
USC 28 Arizona State 20
Austinwolv's add:
While ASU has been playing good football, I don’t think they have the play makers to force Carroll to protect his defense. Meanwhile, while USC hasn’t been dominant like some past seasons with a known unstoppable go-to guy on offense, they do have guys that show flashes at the RB and WR positions. One of those could break the game at any moment, which is precisely what ASU lacks.
USC 28, ASU 23
Texas @ Texas A&M
Nov. 23, 3:30pm ET ABC
Austinwolv's take:
The one saving grace for the Aggies is that this is a rivalry game. Weird things can and have happened during rivalry games of this magnitude. The Aggies need all the weird they can get because they are simply not very good.
A&M runs the ball fairly well with Javorskie Lane and Stephen McGee, getting nearly 220 yards per game on the ground. However, they are one of the worst passing offenses in the land, ranked #106. However, the team puts up 28 points per game, which is decent for a squad that gains less than 400 yards per game total.
The Aggies are vulnerable on the ground, ranking 61st against the run, and they are even worse against the pass as they give up 267 per game. The Aggies also give up nearly 26 points per game, which could prove troublesome against a Texas team that is dangerous when they put things together.
Texas, while winning more games this season, isn’t exactly the powerhouse of the past couple years with either. Inconsistent LB play has left them vulnerable on defense at times, as evidenced by giving up 23 points per game. The Longhorns have ranked highly against the run however, only giving up 93 yards per game rushing. A lack of push upfront has meant long days for the DBs also, as Texas is giving up a lot of yards through the air. The Longhorns only have 21 sacks on the season, which is not something to be happy about since Aggie QB McGee can get out and run some.
Despite struggling at times, the Longhorns average almost 37 points per game. Led by fumble-prone Jamal Charles, Texas is fully capable of the home-run TD run at any time and is strong enough to average over 200 yards per game on the ground. Second year QB Colt McCoy is a good passer if he can keep his jersey clean, as he gets a bit unfocused after a couple hits. Still, he leads a passing offense that goes for 265 per game.
If Texas shows up to play, expect them to handle the Aggies with ease. However, that has been the story of the season for Texas…..inconsistency and droughts of offense and defensive focus. Factor in that the Aggies are really into this game for pride, as the future is an unknown for the program since Coach Fran has all but been thrown out of College Station by the Aggie bouncer.
Longhorns 38, A&M 20
SeminoleDynasty's add:
The Aggies haven't been very good this year and as Austin stated will be looking for a new coach next season. A&M has played poorly at times this year even losing to a poor Miami team in a rout. Texas hasn't played consistently, but they still have plenty of talent to overcome A&M. Texas should come away with the victory in this rivalry.
Texas 34 Texas A&M 17
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Nov. 24, Noon ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
The Hokies are ranked 8th in the nation with a 9-2 record. This game will be for the ACC Coastal division and the winner will move on the ACC Championship game to face Boston College. The Hokies have found their stride the last few weeks with quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon providing a 1-2 punch. The big improvement has been running back Brandon Ore looking like the 2006 version. Tech is coming off a 44-14 win over Miami that saw Ore score 2 touchdowns on the ground. The Hokies average 28.9 points per game and 326.5 yards per game on offense. Those numbers have been moving upward over the past 2 weeks when they scored 40 or more on both FSU and Miami. Taylor and Ore are going to be huge factors if the Hokies are to win this one.
On defense the Hokies are rock solid as usual. The Hokies rank 4th in scoring defense allowing 14.9 points per game. They also rank 5th in total defense allowing 289.4 yards per game. Their attacking style with steady defensive backs allow them to make big plays. Defensive back "Macho" Harris could change the face of the game.
Virginia is ranked 16th in the nation with a record of 9-2. If they win this game they will advance to the ACC Championship game. The Cavaliers would like to avenge their 17-0 defeat last year in Blacksburg. On offense the Cavs average 24.4 points per game and 337.2 yards per game. Their leader, running back Cedric Peerman will miss the rest of the year after having surgery on his foot that was injured back in October. The Cavs had the week off to prepare for the Hokies and their other offensive players led by quarterback Jameel Sewell will need to play their best against the tough Hokie defense.
The Cav defense is led by defensive end Chris Long. Long has been named a semi-finalist for the Bednarik Award and a finalist for the Lombardi award. Long leads the ACC in sacks with 12. The Cavs defense is ranked 10th in scoring defense allowing 17.5 points per game as well as ranked 19th in total defense allowing 313.7 yards per game. They will need to control the Hokies Ore on the ground as well as not allowing Taylor to break containment allowing the big play.
My thinking is the Hokies are rolling and that should continue. Their offense will get a few big plays from Ore and Taylor to give them just enough to beat their in state rival.
Virginia Tech 16 Virginia 9
Austinwolv's add:
Neither offense is all that impressive in this match-up. Thus, I’m leaning towards the slightly better defense….on paper. Moreover, the wild card that Beamer always pulls out is Tech’s special teams play, which has been near the top of the nation at changing games for years now.
Tech 20, UVa 13
Tennessee @ Kentucky
Nov. 24, 1:30pm ET CBS
Austinwolv's take:
Tennessee is a on 4-game winning streak after some up and downs earlier in the season. Erik Ainge continues to put up solid numbers despite a rushing attack that is bordering on sub-par. However, the offense still puts up 34 points per game behind the air attack, which they have to since the defense likes to roll over and give up 27 points per game. Despite the holes, the experience at QB has gotten the Vols to 8-3 this season with some good wins.
The defense is ranked 67th in the land in giving up 388 yards per game.
The Vols have everything to play for as they try to win a right to the SEC title game this week.
Kentucky, after a hot start, has dropped 4 of their last 6. QB Andre Woodson is still the big name we all know and has 30 passing TDs to show for it. He leads an offense that has been potent at times, but also frustrating to watch even complete a pass at others. The offense puts up 36 per game, but the defense allows nearly 28 per game. The offense ranks 32nd for total yardage and 18th for scoring. The Wildcat defense is only a smidge better than the Vol unit, so don’t expect defenses to rule the day here.
In fact, I expect to see both QBs happily pass all over the field. The Vols have a momentum advantage however over the past few weeks, so that is where I’m leaning.
Tennessee 34, Kentucky 30
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I agree with Austin that this should be a shootout. I'm going to go with Kentucky at home though as they've played awfully tough in Lexington. I think they win in a close one thanks to Woodson making the big plays.
Alabama @ Auburn
Nov. 24, 8pm ET ESPN
Austinwolv's take:
After starting fairly strong with a turnaround from last season, Alabama has gone on a drastic skid with the latest blast being a loss to ULM this past weekend. Prior to that, Alabama had been fairly balanced on offense although only ranking #66 in the country in total offense. The Tide puts up 28 points per game, partly due to some creative aspects at times from offensive coordinator Major Applewhite (watch him, people, he's a fast riser in the coaching world). However, Alabama doesn't really have outstanding play makers to make defenses worry. Part of that has been 10 interceptions by John Parker Wilson, although the Tide is +4 in turnover margin this season.
Defense is where 'Bama has struggled some in keeping opponents off the scoreboard, giving up 22 points per game which is good for 33rd in the country. However, the Tide have played solid defense, allowing less than 350 total yards per game which is also 33rd in the country.
For Auburn, a big loss to Georgia has them reeling slightly. The Tiger offense has been up and down, while the team has been supported by the defense.
The Tiger defense is allowing just over 305 yards per game, which slates them 11th in the country, while only giving up 17 points per game which is just slightly better than LSU and good for 7th in the country. Auburn is susceptible on the ground, giving up 120 per game, while it is their pass defense that only gives up 185 per game. Interestingly, Auburn only has 17 sacks on the season.
On offense, Auburn is rather weak, ranking 101st in total offense. While balanced on paper, this offense is pedestrian, and Brandon Cox has only thrown 9TDs this season. The offense is only putting up 25 points per game. The rushing game has been fairly anemic, only gaining 3.7 yards per rush, which is not healthy.
It will be important for Alabama to establish a running game to have a chance in this rivalry game. Auburn's defense is strong and balanced in both aspects of dealing with offenses, so if the Tigers stuff the Tide early, they'll be able to turn the pass rush loose on a Tide offense that doesn't have anything scary on the outside. On the flip side, if 'Bama jumps out early, look for them to stay aggressive against an Auburn offense that isn't explosive enough to make a comeback. Auburn needs to control the ball and protect that defense in order to win this one, although they are coming in with more momentum and also home-field advantage.
Auburn 24, Alabama 20
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I agree with Austin on this one. Auburn's defense will be too much for the Tide to overcome. I think Auburn will control the clock and the defense will create short fields with turnovers and quick 3 and outs to help Auburn's less than stellar offense.
Auburn 17 Alabama 13
Missouri @ Kansas
Nov. 24, 8pm ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Missouri is ranked #3 with a 10-1 record. This game will determine the Big 12 North. Missouri is coming off a 49-32 win over Kansas State. The Tigers offense is one of the nations best ranked 6th in scoring averaging 42.5 points per game. They also rank 4th in total offense averaging 506.3 yards per game. This game promises to be a high scoring affair. The Tigers are led by Heisman contender quarterback Chase Daniel. He averages over 300 yard per game through the air as well as 22.9 yards per game on the ground. His top target is wide out Jeremy Maclin who averages just over 80 yards per game. The Tigers will face a tough test in a strong Jayhawk defense.
On defense the Tigers are lacking. They give up 23 points per game and 379.8 yards per game. That is a bad recipe against a high octane offense like Kansas. They will need to limit the big plays and allow their offense some short fields to stay in this game.
Kansas is ranked #2 in the nation with a 11-0 record. At #2 this is Kansas’ highest ranking in school history. Kansas is coming off a 45-7 win over Iowa State this past weekend. Kansas has one of the, if not best, offenses in the country. They rank 2nd in scoring at 45.8 points per game and 7th in total averaging 500.2 yards per game. They are led by quarterback Todd Reesing who should be getting a lot more Heisman attention than he has. He averages 263.6 yards per game with 30 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He also adds a little running with 18.4 yards per game. His cast includes running back Brandon McAnderson who averages 92.6 yards per game. McAnderson has over 1,000 yards on the ground this year. Reesing's top target is wide out Marcus Henry who averages 88.8 yards receiving per game. These 3 guys will need to continue their good fortunes against Missouri.
On defense Kansas matches their offense. They rank #2 in scoring defense allowing 14.2 points per game as well as ranking 8th in total defense allowing 300 yards per game. If they can bottle up Daniel and the passing game, they should hand Kansas an undefeated regular season and a Big 12 Championship game bid.
I believe the Kansas magic will continue. The Jayhawks move the ball behind Reesing's arm and the Jayhawk defense does it share to keep them in the lead.
Kansas 31 Missouri 27
Austinwolv's add:
I’m going to lean the other way on this one, mainly because Mizzou’s schedule has shown to be a higher quality test than Kansas’. Missouri has put up points on every team, whereas Kansas has had to tiptoe past some opponents. I must be close on this since the polls also show a huge gap in SOS in the Tigers’ favor.
Chase Daniel has been playing lights out, in making plays through the air and on the ground as needed. Reesing has been playing great as well, plus he’s got a dependable runner behind him, whereas Temple is not as productive in yards per carry as McAnderson.
The turnover battle on paper also favors Kansas, as they are an amazing +21 in that category, while Missouri is +10. Daniel has thrown 5 more INTs than Reesing.
Regardless……Missouri has played better teams and still put up points through that schedule. Kansas can prove a lot if their defense takes over the game, keeping Chase Daniel off the field.
Missouri 34, Kansas 32
SeminoleDynasty's other games of interest:
LSU 31 Arkansas 17
Hawaii 33 Boise State 30
BYU 28 Utah 17
UCLA 27 Oregon 20
West Virginia 33 Connecticut 18
Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 28
Georgia 27 Georgia Tech 13
Florida 56 Florida State 27
Clemson 34 South Carolina 20
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