| Posted : Wednesday, November 14 2007 / 18:03 PM |
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NCAA Week 12 predictions
In week 11, Austinwolv kept on trucking at 4-2 which moved him to 38-22 on the year. SeminoleDynasty had a hiccup going 3-3 which moved him to 41-25 on the year. We're down to the final 3 weeks until College Bowl season. This season sure has flown by and has been one of the more entertaining seasons in recent memory.
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In week 11, Austinwolv kept on trucking at 4-2 which moved him to 38-22 on the year. SeminoleDynasty had a hiccup going 3-3 which moved him to 41-25 on the year. We're down to the final 3 weeks until College Bowl season. This season sure has flown by and has been one of the more entertaining seasons in recent memory. For week 12, the Madden Planet prognosticators have chosen the following games: West Virginia @ Cincinnati, Boston College @ Clemson, Oregon @ Arizona, Kentucky @ Georgia, Oklahoma @ Texas Tech, and Ohio State @ Michigan.
Oregon @ Arizona
Nov. 15, 9pm ET ESPN
Austinwolv's take:
The 2007 Oregon Ducks enter this game at #2 in the BCS, trying to get more pub for their program and downplay how ugly their uniforms are. Funded by Phil Knight, the team has been lighting up scoreboards at nearly 43 points per game, while giving up 22.
The strength of the team is obviously the multi-faceted attack on the ground and the air. Led by Jonathan Stewart and bolstered by Dennis Dixon, the Ducks are stomping through 270 yards per game on the ground, while Dixon is passing for 210 yards per game. The Duck offense has been fast when needed, but can also be physical when needed. As long as Dixon stays healthy, the Ducks are dangerous, as they lose his mobility when backup Leaf comes in.
On defense, the Ducks are not nearly as strong, giving up over 400 yards per game, but their scoring defense is what counts as they are ranked #30 in the country.
Arizona is having a bit of a rough year at 4-6 so far. However, with two straight wins over talented teams (Washington and UCLA), the Wildcats are capable of playing above and beyond to pull off an upset. Their defense will have to play much better than the #67 ranking they have in scoring defense, giving up 28 points per game. Oregon obviously can ring up points, so ‘Zona needs turnovers and better play to slow them up. The Wildcats, despite giving up a lot of points on average, actually are a decent defensive team, giving up 366 yards per game which is good for the 48th defense in the land.
The offense is where the Wildcats needs to help out their defense. The Wildcats have given the ball away 20 times this season, which simply cannot happen against the Ducks. Unfortunately, ‘Zona won’t be able to play keep away with the ball as they only rush for 82 yards per game, instead relying on the arm of Willie Tuitama, who is one of the tops in the land in completions per game. He has pretty solid stats this year, throwing 24 TDs against 9INTs while hitting 64% of his passes.
In order for Arizona to beat the more-talented Ducks, they’ll need a mistake-free offense, along with catching some breaks on defense. Luckily, they are at home, but I don’t think that helps enough.
Oregon 37, ‘Zona 20
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Agree with Austin here. Oregon has too many horses and Zona doesn't. Unless their defense comes to play and Oregon's offense sputters badly, I see Oregon putting up a lot of points on the Wildcats.
Oregon 45 Arizona 28
Ohio State @ Michigan
Nov. 17, Noon ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Ohio State has been knocked from their perch after losing to Illinois 28-21 last week. The Buckeyes dropped from 1st to 7th in the polls. They come in with a record of 10-1 and 6-1 in the Big 10. This game will be for the Big 10 championship. The Buckeyes offense is ranked 30th in scoring offense at 33.6 points per game. They only average 407.8 yards per game which doesn't put them in the top 30. They are led by running back Chris Wells who averages 112.8 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Todd Boeckman will look to rebound this week after throwing 3 interceptions against the Illini.
The Buckeye defense is still rated as one of the best. They still rank 1st in scoring defense allowing 11.4 points per game. They now rank 2nd in total defense allowing 237.5 yards per game. The Buckeyes will have their hands full against a very good offense in the Michigan Wolverines this week. They must not allow the big play like they did last week, cause the Buckeye offense is not made to make the big play. For this entire season the defense has started the offense in short fields and allowed the offense to grind it out on the ground.
Michigan is coming off a 37-21 loss to Wisconsin. Michigan comes in at 8-3 and 6-1 in the Big 10. With a win they can head off to the Rose Bowl as Big 10 Champions. Michigan averages 28.2 points per game and 399.2 yards per game. The Michigan offense is led by quarterback Chad Henne, running back Mike Hart, and wide receiver Mario Manningham. Henne hasn't had the season he'd hoped for, but he hasn't been bad. He's been sacked more than once per game this year. He's also missed 3 games due to injury. Mike Hart has been very good averaging 5.5 yards per carry on his way to 1188 yards on the ground in 8 games. Hart also has missed 3 games this year. Manningham has a 6 game streak of 100 yards receiving. He'll need to continue that if the Wolverines are to beat Ohio State.
The Michigan defense has not been as good as they usually are. They do rank 27th in scoring defense allowing 20.8 points per game. They also allow 335.1 yards per game to rank 30th in total defense. The Wolverine defensive crew will need to force Boeckman to misfire for the 2nd week in a row and allow Hart and company to put up some points.
My thinking is Michigan wins at home in a close one. I firmly believe they overlooked Wisconsin last week which bit them in the butt. Ohio State probably did the same with Illinois. I think Hart has a big day in his final home game. Henne does just enough to keep the Buckeye defense honest.
Michigan 27 Ohio State 17
Austinwolv's add:
Michigan’s chances would be better if they hadn’t let MSU and Wisconsin shove the ball down their throats right up the middle of the defense in the last two weeks, as they gave up a lot of rushing yards, as well as much of the game clock. Don’t think OSU didn’t see that and will try to stuff Beanie (who willingly goes by that stupid nickname?) Wells up the middle but he bounces off and heads outside for good gainers. The OSU passing game is not as worrisome by itself, but if the running game works, watch out as SweaterVest knows when to pull out the play action for a good jab to the ribs.
If Hart and Henne are not in good health, Michigan will be in trouble. If they are, look for a lot of Hart, even though the OSU defense will be well-prepared to knife through backside gaps to beat the zone blocking.
If healthy, UM 31, OSU 27
If not healthy, OSU 24, UM 16
Kentucky @ Georgia
Nov. 17, 12:30pm ET SEC-TV/ESPN Game Plan
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Kentucky is coming off a 27-20 victory over Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are ranked 22nd in the nation with a record of 7-3 and 3-3 in the SEC East. The Cats will need to win their final two games to take the SEC East title. To do so their offense is going to need to quite the crowd in Athens early. The Wildcat offense is ranked 14th in scoring offense at 37.7 points per game and 25th in total offense averaging 440.2 yards per game. The Wildcats are led by quarterback Andre Woodson. Woodson averages 265.3 yards per game passing while throwing for 29 touchdowns this year. He will have to be on his game if the Wildcats are to upset the Bulldogs.
The Kentucky defense has been their weakness. Kentucky gives up 28.1 points per game and 388 yards per game. That will not cut it against a Georgia club that has seemed to find it's offensive groove at the right time. The Kentucky defense is going to have to get some key turnovers and not allow the big play if Kentucky is to stay in this game.
Georgia is rolling after whipping up on Auburn 45-20 this past Saturday. Georgia is now ranked 8th in the nation with a record of 8-2 and 5-2 in the SEC East. If they win this game, they could be going to the SEC Championship game if Tennessee falters in one of their final 2 games. Georgia is ranked 32nd in scoring offense averaging 32.8 points per game and only 383.4 yards per game. Georgia is led on offense by quarterback Matt Stafford, and running back Knowshon Moreno. Moreno averages 110.4 yards per game on the ground as well as 22.7 receiving per game.
Georgia's defense hasn't been all that bad this year. The numbers do not show the whole story. They give up 22.2 points per game, but rank 26th in total defense allowing 328.4 yards per game. The Bulldog defense will need to get pressure on Woodson and force him to have one of those miscue games he can have.
I see Georgia getting the needed pressure on Woodson and causing havoc. The Bulldogs come out with a big win at home and will have to watch to see if Tennessee falters in their final 2 games to find out if they are heading Atlanta for the SEC Championship game.
Georgia 31 Kentucky 17
Austinwolv's add:
I think the Bulldogs are too strong in the trenches and gaining valuable experience as the season has progressed for the Wildcats to overcome on the road. Having a decent defense with a productive running game means the Bulldogs have more to lean on than a streaky Woodson passing game.
Bulldogs 27, Kentucky 21
West Virginia @ Cincinnati
Nov. 17, 7:45pm ET ESPN
Austinwolv's take:
Almost quietly, the Bearcats have been rolling through the past few seasons with tough defense and opportunistic offenses. This season is more of the same as the 8-2 Cincy squad hosts media darling WVU.
Cincy gives up 360 yards per game, which is 44th in the country. However, the more important stat is that they are ranked #8 in scoring defense, only giving up 16 points per game. That puts them right on par with WVU’s scoring defense rating, which is also just over 16 points per game.
Both teams also feature similar rushing defense numbers, with WVU giving up 94 yards per game, while Cincy gives up 99 per game.
Through the air, the Bearcats give up many more…..261, to be exact, per game, which makes them the 97th rated squad. WVU however is much better against the pass, only giving up 181 yards per game, which is 10th in the country.
Ok, so let’s compare offenses. Everyone knows the hype that is Pat White and Steve Slaton. Cincinnati however also puts up 428 yards per game, which is less than 40 yards behind WVU’s 462. The Bearcats rush for a decent 165 yards on the ground per game, while throwing for 263. WVU passes for 174 per game, while rushing for 289. Basically, the offenses flip their productivity tendencies. Cincy puts up 36 per game, so they know how to find the end zone.
Games at Cincinnati are basically trap games, as the Bearcats play good football under head coach Brian Kelly. WVU is in for a fight, so I think it comes down to how well the WVU defense plays, not their offense. If they can keep the Bearcat offense from controlling the ball and clock, White and Co. will put up their points.
WVU 31, Cincy 27
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Agree again with Austin. Cincinnati isn't going to lay down for the Mountaineers. West Virginia will win it because of big plays from White and Slaton, but Cincy will match them until the end.
West Virginia 34 Cincinnati 28
Boston College @ Clemson
Nov. 17, 7:45pm ET ESPN2
Austinwolv's take:
Formerly hot BC limps in after faltering in the last two games. Losing to FSU is pretty bad this year. They’ll have to rebound against a dangerous Clemson team that mirrors their own record, but features more explosive play makers outside of the QB position than the Eagles.
Everyone knows Matt Ryan’s name at this point, but Andre Callender is who needs to play well for BC to do well. He is responsible for much of the BC offense. The Eagles run for 115 per game while heavily relying on Ryan’s arm to provide 330 yards per game. That totals a nice 445 yards per game, but the point production has been lacking as the Eagles *only* score 30 points per game.
On defense, the Eagles are great against the run, but not spectacular as a defense overall. They give up 20 points per game which puts them at 25th in the nation. The defense only gives up 66 yards per game rushing, but teams then pick on them through the air to the tune of 280 yards per game.
Clemson’s squad is back on track after a couple ugly losses in the middle of the season. While the Tigers don’t have wins that stand out against highly-ranked teams, they are winning, and they do have two running backs that can strike quickly and physically. The big boon to their offense has been the development of QB Cullen Harper who has been getting better as the season goes on. Clemson is putting up 37 points per game, while churning out a decent 165 yards per game on the ground, but mainly going through the air for 260 yards per game.
The Tiger defense is ranked as #5 in the country, giving up only 282 yards per game and only 18 points per game (#15). However, one could attribute that to a schedule that is average. G
Going by the numbers only, Clemson matches up favorably as their #3 pass defense can take on the pass-favored BC offense. However, BC’s rush defense, on paper, looks like it should contend just fine with the Clemson rushing duo. It is the Clemson passing game that may cause BC fits.
Clemson 35, BC 28
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Boston College will never be in this game. BC is limping and having to play in Clemson is not the prescription for turning that around. Ryan will make enough mistakes to cost them for a season and the Tigers will roll behind an offense and defense that is hitting all cylinders. Harper, Davis, and Spiller will have huge days in the rout as BC drops it's 3rd straight and the Tigers go on to the ACC Championship game.
Clemson 46 Boston College 17
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Nov. 17, 8:00pm ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Oklahoma is looking on the outside in right now for the National Championship game and needs LSU or Oregon to falter. Oklahoma is currently ranked 3rd in the BCS with a record of 9-1 and 5-1 in the Big 12. The Sooners are coming off a 52-21 win over Baylor this past weekend. With a win the Sooners will clinch the Big 12 South division. On offense the Sooners have been outstanding averaging 45 points per game which is good for 3rd in the country in scoring offense. They also rank 17th in total offense averaging 459.6 yards per game. The talented Sooners are led by quarterback Sam Bradford who averages 250.9 yards per game through the air. He has 28 touchdowns as well this year.
On defense the Sooners are equally impressive. They are ranked 11th in scoring defense allowing 16.8 points per game and 16th in total defense allowing 312.3 yards per game. They will have their hands full against the Red Raiders offense.
Texas Tech is coming off a 59-43 loss to Texas this past Saturday. Texas Tech has a record of 7-4 and 3-4 in the Big 12. The Red Raider offense is one of the best with their high flying passing attack. They are ranked 6th in scoring offense averaging 42.5 points per game and ranked 1st in total offense averaging 542.8 yards per game. The Raiders are led on offense by system quarterback Graham Harrell who averages 443.5 yards per game passing. His leading target is Michael Crabtree who averages 155.2 yards per game and has 20 touchdowns receiving this year.
The Red Raider defense is their "Achilles heal". The Tech defense gives up 25.6 points per game and 363.4 yards per game. They will have to do much better if they are to stay in this contest.
Oklahoma is much too talented for the Red Raiders on both sides of the ball. The Sooners playing in Lubbock shouldn't have much problem handling the Red Raiders.
Oklahoma 38 Texas Tech 21
Austinwolv's add:
Mike Leach’s whining about refs didn’t win him many fans in that profession last week, so expect to see the zebras let the players play in Lubbock. If only Leach could be as passionate about building a defense that can tackle as he is about the review system and his high-scoring offense. OU gives the tortilla-throwers another loss by a wide margin.
OU 49, TT 27
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