| Posted : Friday, November 9 2007 / 2:08 AM |
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Week 11 NCAA predictions
Week 10 continued the good run for the Madden Planet NCAA prognosticators. Both Austinwolv and SeminoleDynasty finished 4-2 for the week. As we finish up our run to bowl season, we expect to only get better.
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Week 10 continued the good run for the Madden Planet NCAA prognosticators. Both Austinwolv and SeminoleDynasty finished 4-2 for the week. As we finish up our run to bowl season, we expect to only get better. For week 11, we have chosen Michigan @ Wisconsin, Florida @ South Carolina, Kansas @ Oklahoma State, Auburn @ Georgia, Illinois @ Ohio State, and Southern California @ California as our key games.
Michigan @ Wisconsin
Nov. 10th, Noon ET ESPN
Austinwolv's take:
In the battle of Who-Has-Less-Injuries-To-Overcome, one has to wonder how much home field advantage will pay off for Wisconsin. That rowdy Camp Randall stadium has given Michigan fits in the past, but this isn't a night game, so that should help out the Wolverines.
Michigan has won seven of the last eight against the Badgers, but they have been hard-fought.
Michigan will be looking at a healthier Mike Hart and Chad Henne for this week's game, but how much they play will be determined by the scoreboard. Coaches will be looking to rest both as much as possible for the following week's game against OSU. Without Hart, the running game will suffer some obviously, allowing Wisconsin to be aggressive up front. Wisconsin is average against the run giving up nearly 150 yards per game, which means the Wolverine right side of the OL can work on fixing mistakes from last week's poor showing against MSU.
The Badgers are solid against the pass however, but a healthy Henne and the talented UM wide receivers should be productive. I expect to see Michigan score far more than the 22.5 points the Badgers have allowed per game this year.
Wisconsin star running back PJ Hill is still an unknown for this week, as he's nursing nasty leg soreness. Luckily for the Badgers, they have one of the more capable QBs they've had in recent memory and aren't afraid to throw it with Tyler Donovon. Stud TE Travis Beckum could provide some match-up problems with the still-improving UM LBs who have only recently been playing better in space against the pass. Unfortunately for the Badgers, the wide receivers are not very dangerous, so look for Michigan to key on Beckum as long as the Wisconsin ground game doesn't get moving. The Badgers historically have run the ball well, but the Wolverines have always played well against the Wisconsin ground game. Unless Donovan can get some scramble yards on broken plays and designed runs, I see Wisconsin struggling in this one because the Michigan defense has been playing very well. The Wolverines are giving up 19.2 points per game this season, but are only giving up 15 points per game if the first two debacle games of the season are thrown out.
Michigan 31, Badgers 23
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I agree with Austin in this one. Michigan should be able to get Hart going with Henne completing key passes. That will help Michigan control the clock and allow their defense to do just enough to help them win this one.
Michigan 24 Wisconsin 17
Auburn @ Georgia
Nov. 10th, 3:30pm ET CBS
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Auburn is ranked 18th with a record of 7-3 after beating up on lowly Tennessee Tech 35-3 this past weekend. Auburn has played well this year with all 3 losses being less than a margin of 7 points each. The Tigers offense hasn't been great averaging 25.5 points per game and 343.6 yards per game. Quarterback Brandon Cox leads the Tiger offense. He hasn't been outstanding this season, but he has been a manager completing 60% of his passes with a 126.8 passer rating. Auburn will need to continue to bleed the clock, make big plays at key points that take the crowd out of the game, and limit turnovers on offense if they expect to beat Georgia.
On defense the Tigers are stout. The Tigers currently rank 5th in scoring defense allowing 14.5 points per game as well as ranked 8th in total defense allowing 293.8 yards per game. Though they have been playing well defensively, they don't excel at run or pass defense as some dominant defenses might. The Tigers will need to continue to play solid on defense, and force Georgia to give up an easy score on a turnover.
Georgia will be ranked 10th coming into this one with a 7-2 record after beating Troy 44-34 this past weekend. Georgia is led by quarterback Matt Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno. Moreno averages over 100 yards per game on the ground which the Bulldogs average 31.4 points per game and 379.7 yards per game. The Dawgs will need to rely on a balanced attack to take down a strong Auburn defense.
The Bulldog defense hasn't been too good this season. Their defense gives up 22.4 points per game and 340.9 yards per game. Giving up 34 points to Troy last week makes one wonder if that were due to not being in the game or the Bulldogs not being very tough. Either way, that doesn't give much confidence for the Bulldogs playing against Auburn.
I see Auburn pulling out a win in Athens. Georgia has been giving up way too many big plays through the air. Auburn will hit a few and allow their defense to dominant the game causing turnovers early and often.
Auburn 24 Georgia 13
Austinwolv's add:
Auburn has been quietly going about their business this season, while Georgia has seemed largely inconsistent on defense. The tools are there for the Bulldog secondary to get the job done if they front seven keeps Brandon Cox confused and preoccupied with the rush. Having a good running game helps in games like these, so coupling that with a home game, I give a slight edge to the Bulldogs in a low-scoring affair.
UGa 23, Auburn 20
Illinois @ Ohio State
Nov. 10th, 3:30pm ET ABC (Regional)
SeminoleDynasty's take:
The Illini will be 7-3 coming into this contest. Currently 3rd in the Big 10, the Illini could make some major noise with a victory against the Buckeyes. The Illini are coming off a 44-17 win over Minnesota on Saturday. The Illini offense has some play makers in quarterback Juice Williams, running back Rashard Mendenhall, and wide out Arrelious Benn. They haven't put it all together consistently this season though. Illinois averages 27.6 points per game and 413.9 yards per game. They will need to play their best game to take down the #1 team in the nation.
Illinois defensively hasn't been half bad. They are currently ranked #21 in scoring defense giving up 19.1 points per game. They do give up a lot of yardage though giving up 355 yards per game. Most of that has been passing though. They will need to limit the Buckeye running game and not allow the big pass.
Ohio State is still the #1 ranked team in the nation and one of three undefeated teams remaining at 10-0. Ohio State beat up on Wisconsin 38-17 on Saturday. The Buckeyes are lead on offense by running back Chris Wells who averages 116.5 yards on the ground per game. The Buckeye quarterback, Todd Boeckman, is a steady quarterback. He's passing at just over 65% with a rating of 160.7. He's also passed for 23 touchdowns compared to only 8 interceptions. His leading receiver is Brian Robiskie, son of Cleveland Browns assistant coach, Terry Robiskie. Robiskie has caught 10 of the 24 Buckeye touchdowns through the air this year. On a whole the offense is ranked 25th in scoring offense averaging 34.9 points per game and average 415 yards per game.
On defense the Buckeyes are outstanding. They currently rank #1 in both scoring defense at 9.7 points per game and total defense at 221.2 yards per game. We'll call them the "Silver Bullets" cause they are flying all over the place this season. The defense only has one senior starter in linebacker Larry Grant. Last year's Bronko Nagurski winner, linebacker James Laurinaitis leads the defense.
I see Ohio State taking this one due to home field advantage and experience in big games. The Buckeye defense will only need to limit the run as Juice isn't a true passing threat. Ohio State takes this one.
Ohio State 31 Illinois 17
Austinwolv's add:
I think it will be ugly for the Illini in Columbus this year, mainly because Juice Williams is not developed enough of a passer to keep the OSU defense honest. OSU has more play makers on defense than what Illinois has on offense, so shutting down Mendenhall and Benn leaves the game on Williams' shoulders. The Illini defense will match up nicely with the OSU offense, and they could be in good shape if they can cause some turnovers. That is the only way Illinois will generate enough chances and points to beat OSU.
Suckeyes 34, Illini 13
Florida @ South Carolina
Nov. 10th, 7:45pm ET ESPN
Austinwolv's take:
The 'ol ball coach comes back to Florida with the Gamecocks playing decent ball this year. South Carolina started solid this year, but haven't been able to put consistent offense together to help out the defense. The Gamecocks offense is only mustering 26 points per game, while the defense is giving up just under 21, which is good for 27th in the country. A Spurrier offense only being 65th in scoring offense is out-of-character though as he's been trying to get players into that program. In typical Spurrier fashion, he's played the QB switch game, with Chris Smelley taking most snaps but making a lot of young mistakes. The ground game has been shared with decent numbers by two RBs, but is only providing about 121 yards per game.
Florida, despite some stumbles, still has plenty of firepower and the Chuck Norris-like mythical Tim Tebow to put up points aplenty. The Gators are running the ball fine, being ranked 29th in the country with 190 yards per game, while the passing game is working to the tune of 251 per game. That amounts to the #10 scoring offense in the land at 40.22 points per game.
On defense, the Gators are holding teams to 105 yards per game but are giving up 241 passing yards per game and 25 points per game.
In order for the Gamecocks to be successful in this game, their defense will have to play spectacular by forcing turnovers and making Florida put together long drives, i.e. limit big plays. The South Carolina offense does not have the firepower and talent to put up points to win the game, so I expect to see the ball coach play up field position and put his defense in good situations.
Florida 34, South Carolina 16
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I've sat here and flip flopped on this one twice before making a decision. I'm going to go back with my 1st thought and say the Gators win this one in a close one thanks to Percy Harvin. Harvin will break a big play that breaks the back bone of the Gamecocks in Columbia.
Florida 31 South Carolina 20
Kansas @ Oklahoma State
Nov. 10th, 8pm ET ABC (Regional)
Austinwolv's take:
Up and coming undefeated Kansas is on a roll with the #15 rushing game in the land. The passing game is also putting up good numbers, going for 274 yards per game, which is summing up to the #2 scoring offense at 46.22 points per game. However, Kansas hasn't played anybody, with their only ranked win being over #24 Kansas State. Close wins at mediocre Colorado and barely-mediocre Texas A&M doesn't strike fear into opponent's hearts yet.
On defense, the weak schedule has also inflated the Jayhawk national rankings, as they are #2 and only giving up 13.4 points per game. Kansas' run defense is holding teams to 77 yards per game, which is forcing them to throw.
On the other side of the field, the OKST Cowboys have been all over the map. A potent offense that hits at 34.6 points per game has to try to offset the 27.2 points per game that the defense gives up. QB Zac Robinson has put up decent numbers, while Dantrell Savage is a compact, strong runner. Adarious Bowman is the star of this offense, being a large target with 5 100+ yard games this season. The Pokes will need big games from Bowman receiving and Robinson making plays (he can run well too), as they are light on 2nd and 3rd receiver options.
The Cowboy high-powered offense will test the Kansas defense and should help reveal if the Jayhawks can compete with talented offensive teams. The Jayhawks have been moving the ball in a team effort through the air, spreading the ball amongst several receivers. Expect more of the same against a weak OKST pass defense.
KU 27, Pokes 23
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Agree again with Austin here. Kansas will do just enough to pull this one out. Oklahoma State will have to play much better defensively if they expect to come out on top.
Kansas 31 Oklahoma State 23
Southern California @ California
Nov. 10th, 8pm ET ABC (Regional)
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Southern Cal is ranked 12th in the nation with a 7-2 record. The Trojans are coming off a 24-3 victory over of Oregon State. The Trojans are led by quarterback John David Booty who is coming off a foot injury and should be back close to 100% after starting against the Beavers last week. USC averages 31.4 points per game and 412 yards per game.
The Trojan defense is one of the best. They are currently ranked #7 in scoring defense averaging 15.9 points per game and #3 in total defense averaging 253.3 yards per game. The Trojan defense should get plenty of pressure on Cal in this one which should force some turnovers.
California is now ranked 24th after losing 3 of their last 4 before beating Washington State 20-17 this past weekend. Cal has a record of 6-3 on the year. Cal averages 31.8 points per game and 405.3 yards per game. Quarterback Nate Longshore, running back Justin Forsett, and wide out DeSean Jackson make a talented trio. Forsett averages over 100 yards per game on the ground. Longshore has been a bit of a disappointment this season and needs to have a big game to defeat the Trojans.
The Cal defense has been quite poor this season. They've given up an average of 25.7 points per game and 374.9 yards per game. They must play lights out to take down the Trojans in this game.
I see USC playing quite well in this one with Booty getting the ball to his play makers and the defense curbing the big play ability of Cal.
USC 34 California 20
Austinwolv's add:
Cal has been struggling after a promising start to the season, and USC is not the team to which right the ship against. Unless DeSean Jackson makes some special teams plays, the USC defense will limit the run early and force Longshore into hurried throws to set the tone. USC offense will ride on how well Booty plays, as the other talented players haven't really set who the other go-to guy is yet that will lead them from appearances on the outside.
USC 35, Cal 21
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