| Posted : Thursday, November 1 2007 / 14:23 PM |
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Week 10 NCAA predictions
Another good week for SeminoleDynasty as he went 4-2 for the week. Had it not been for a 4th quarter comeback by Matt Ryan and the BC Eagles, then he would have been 5-1.
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Another good week for SeminoleDynasty as he went 4-2 for the week. Had it not been for a 4th quarter comeback by Matt Ryan and the BC Eagles, then he would have been 5-1. This week Austinwolv will be back to help out and give his thoughts after his wife delivered their child last week. Austinwolv still sits at 30-18 while SeminoleDynasty moves on to 34-20. The games the guys have chosen for week 10 are Arizona State @ Oregon, Missouri @ Colorado, Rutgers @ Connecticut, LSU @ Alabama, Texas A&M @ Oklahoma, and Florida State @ Boston College.
LSU @ Alabama
Nov. 3, 5pm ET CBS
SeminoleDynasty's take:
LSU is now ranked #3 with a record of 7-1 and needing some help to get into the National Championship game. The Tigers are coming off a bye week and have had 2 weeks to prepare for Alabama. Quarterback Matt Flynn and the LSU offense have been very good this year. They currently rank #18 in scoring offense with an average of 36.8 points per game. While Flynn has the passing game moving crisp, running back Jacob Hester has the running game moving just as well. The Tigers have actually gained more yards on the ground this year than through the air. The Tiger offense averages 435.4 yards per game so far this season. With Early Doucet back, the Tigers offense is even more explosive as he averages 82 yards per game receiving.
On defense the Tigers have been even better. LSU has dropped from where they were a few weeks back defensively, but they are still #5 in scoring defense giving up 15.4 points per game. The Tigers also are ranked #2 in total defense giving up an average of 232.3 yards per game. Defensive end Kirston Pittman will be asked to get plenty of pressure on Alabama's John Parker Wilson. Alabama will have a hard time running as LSU only gives up 71.6 yards on the ground per game.
Alabama comes into this match-up ranked #17 with a record of 6-2. The Tide could get a leg up for the SEC West if they were to pull out the upset. Just as LSU had the week off to prepare, so did the Crimson Tide. Alabama's offense is led by running back Terry Grant who averages 87.1 yards per game on the ground. The Tide average 31.5 points per game and 413.6 yards per game. Wide receiver D.J. Hall is a favorite target of John Parker Wilson. Hall averages nearly 100 yards per game receiving. Parker, Hall, and Grant will need to have their best games of the year to keep the Tide in this game.
The Tide defense hasn't been very good this year. They give up 20.8 points per game and 355.3 yards per game. Simeon Castille and Rashad Johnson will have their hands full in the defensive backfield against the Tigers. The Tide defense will need to bring they best effort and more against a talented Tiger offense.
I see Alabama playing close the first quarter before LSU pulls away. Too much talent on both sides of the ball for the Crimson Tide to keep up even at home.
LSU 37 Alabama 17
Austinwolv's add:
While Alabama has made strides under Saban, LSU still has too much talent on both sides of the ball. A night game in the SEC is loud and fun, so the Tide emotion will be up, but LSU still has national clout to play for, so I expect them to outmuscle 'Bama in the trenches to control the game by early in the 3rd quarter.
LSU 34, Tide 20
Missouri @ Colorado
Nov. 3, 6:30pm ET FSN
Austinwolv's take:
Colorado is coming off a win against Texas Tech last week. The Buffs have been up and down this season, being just over .500. Unfortunately for the Buffs, their offense is not that good, as they are at the lower half of D1 in total offense and averaging 25 points per game. Colorado lacks a play maker at RB, so the Buffs throw the ball a bit more and have done a decent job protecting the QB, giving up 13 sacks on the season.
On defense, CU has made their living this season, as they have the 40th ranked total defense in the country, although they are giving up 24 points per game. The Buffalo front seven is adequate against the run, but their lack of pressure on the QB is leaving the secondary out to dry, as evidenced by only 15 sacks made and giving up 226 passing yards per game.
Mizzou comes into this game with a high-powered offense and another win last week, as they moved to 7-1 on the season. The Tigers average 40 points per game, while giving up 23 per game, including holding Texas Tech to just 10 a couple weeks ago. Don't be fooled though as the Missouri defense is average at best. Missouri has the 107th-ranked pass defense, while giving up 121 yards per game on the ground.
Luckily for Colorado, Missouri struggles to stop the pass and has not gotten to the QB much this year, as they've only notched 18 sacks. Not so lucky for the Buffs is a weak pass defense that has to try to stop a successful Missouri air and ground attack. Expect to see the Tigers pick up another 40 points, while giving up few.
Missouri 41, Colorado 16
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I agree with Austin. Colorado has been too inconsistent. Missouri has been consistent with only a loss to Oklahoma. I expect Missouri to control this one.
Missouri 37 Colorado 17
Arizona State @ Oregon
Nov. 3, 6:30pm ET FSN/ESPN Game Plan
Austinwolv's take:
The PAC10 game of the week will be at Autzen Stadium. Unbeaten ASU puts their record on the line against the Ducks in what should be an intriguing match-up.
ASU has rolled through their schedule this year, barely getting challenged. A close call at Washington State was the only ASU win that wasn't in double digits. ASU is averaging 37 points per game while giving up just 16 with a defense that is ranked 19th in the land. One could question their schedule, as Cal is the only ranked team that ASU has played.
ASU brings the 33rd ranked offense into this game, as the Devils are balanced on the ground and the air. QB Rudy Carpenter has plenty of experience, and he'll need it in a loud environment.
Oregon is looking to further show off, hoping to move up in the polls from their current #5 spot, after beating USC last week. QB Dennis Dixon has been key to the success, amounting to 2000+ yards combined rushing and passing. Oregon is putting up 44 points per game, while giving up 22 per game. The Ducks also feature one of the nation's big-time backs, Jonathan Stewart, who is over 1000 yards rushing this season. On the outside, WR Jaison Williams is a big and fast target. Oregon also has speed at the other WR positions, helping pave the way to the 4th-ranked offense nationally. Given their schedule, that ranking stands out even more. Even more impressively in that is that Oregon gets a larger portion of yards on the ground to the tune of 280 per game, which always helps to win games.
On defense, the Ducks actually aren't very strong, although they are aggressive in putting up a decent 21 sacks this season. The Ducks are vulnerable on the ground, giving up almost 140 yards per game, while their pass D is even worse, ranking at 91st in the country.
Unless ASU can contain Dixon and Stewart on the ground and force Dixon to beat them through the air, the Duck's weapons and home-field advantage will be too great for ASU to over come. This has the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Oregon 37, ASU 32
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I picked against Oregon last week at home and learned my lesson. Oregon takes down the Sun Devils in this one with Stewart and Dixon running all over them. I don't think this one will be that close.
Oregon 31 Arizona State 20
Rutgers @ Connecticut
Nov. 3, 7:15pm ET ESPNU
Austinwolv's take:
Guess who leads the Big East? That's right, UCONN. The Huskies have a long way to go, but beat upstart South Florida last week to move to 7-1 this season and 3-0 in the conference. UCONN is putting up 30 points per game this season, while only giving up 13. The Husky schedule is suspect, but that defense hasn't given up more than 17 points. UCONN will need to ride that 10th ranked defense, as the offense is rather weak and gives up a number of sacks (20 this season so far). Husky running game is good for ~160 yards per game, which is enough to keep a defense honest, but isn't dangerous.
Where UCONN excels is turnover margin, being +1.5 per game this season. The Huskies have picked off 18 passes and scooped 4 fumbles, while only giving up the ball 10 times this season.
Rutgers, a pre-season favorite, has stumbled a bit to a 5-3 record including a turnover-ridden loss to WVU last week. Rutgers has the tools, but has been inconsistent. Ray Rice is still putting up decent numbers with over 1100 yards rushing, but has struggled to a 4.9 ypc average. Rutgers features solid WRs that should keep UCONN honest.
Rutgers has been active on defense, collecting 24 sacks on the season which does not bode well for UCONN which has given up 20 sacks so far. The Knights have been respectable on defense by the numbers, but are struggling against the run as they give up 150 yards per game on the ground.
The Knights feature the 13th ranked offense and the 22nd rated defense, so why the struggle? Turnovers. Rutgers has only collected 10 turnovers from opponents this season, while giving it up 17 times.
WVU will be sending a thank you note to Rutgers after this week. The Knights will put it together in holding onto the ball and putting pressure on a less-than-average UCONN offense.
Rutgers 27, UCONN 17
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Once again I agree with Austin. I'm still having a hard time with this Big East love fest of South Florida and Connecticut. They are better than average teams playing well and getting breaks. Look for Rutgers to contain the turnover bug and Ray Rice to keep the ball in Rutgers hands on long drives. Rutgers wins on the road.
Rutgers 21 Connecticut 13
Florida State @ Boston College
Nov. 3, 8pm ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Florida State has been inconsistent this year. They are a team of 2 halves. The Clemson game they played an awful 1st half, but a dominant 2nd half. The Wake and Miami games were opposite. The similarities are they lost all 3. The Noles come into this game 5-3 and unranked. The Seminoles are still looking for consistency out of their entire offense and have been a field goal machine the last 2 games. They've played musical chairs with their 2 junior quarterbacks, Xavier Lee and Drew Weatherford. Weatherford will get the call for this game in Boston. Weatherford and the Noles are coming off their best offensive game of the year in a 25-6 win over Duke. The running game behind Antone Smith finally saw some breath as Smith ran for 146 yards on the day. The Noles offense average 23.9 points per game and 369.8 yards per game. Their most explosive player is sophomore wide out Preston Parker. The Noles will need to get him the ball often against the Eagles to have a shot.
The Seminole defense has been just as unpredictable. They've had their bouts of missed tackles and missed assignments, but they've played solidly. The Nole defense is ranked 18th in scoring defense giving up 18.1 points per game as well as 18th in total defense giving up 307 yards per game. Noles rush end Everette Brown along with defensive tackle Andre Fluellen will need to get plenty of pressure on BC's Matt Ryan if the Noles want to come away with an upset victory.
Boston College is still undefeated and ranked #2 after pulling out a 14-10 win in Blacksburg last Thursday night against Virginia Tech. Boston College is led by Heisman front runner Matt Ryan. Ryan single handedly snatched victory from the Hokies on Thursday throwing 2 touchdowns in less than 2:30 left in the game. Ryan has been magnificent all season averaging 304.1 yards per game with a rating of 131.5 and completing 61 percent of his passes. Wide receiver Brandon Robinson is Ryan's favorite target, but Ryan mixes it up with 7 receivers who average over 33 yards per game. The Seminoles will need to watch out for tight end Ryan Purvis as they have a history of problems covering the tight end. While the offense does get the publicity, they aren't currently one of the top 25 offenses in the country averaging 32 points per game and 438.1 yards per game. Most of their yards come through the air.
On defense the Eagles have been quite good this year. Ryan may get the pub, but the Eagles are currently ranked 12th in scoring defense giving up an average of 16.8 points per game. They are also ranked 21st in total defense giving up 316.3 yards per game. They may give up bunches through the air, but their run defense is one of the best giving up an average of 55.1 yards per game on the ground. The BC defense will need to contain Parker and continue to play that dominant run defense if they want to run the table.
I see Boston College pulling out a close hard fought victory again this week. The Seminoles will show up to play. They have only been blown out once the past 2 years. Every other loss has been by less than 7 points. Matt Ryan will hit some big plays that will be the back breaker for the Noles.
Boston College 24 Florida State 16
Austinwolv's add:
Florida State is still a program trying to find their identity. I give the Noles a great chance if the defense creates some turnovers and can keep Ryan in the pocket instead of letting him buy time on 3rd and long situations. They don't need to sack him, just keep him contained. BC needs to keep things unpredictable on the ground and through the air, not making Ryan have to carry the load late against a historically aggressive Mickey Andrews defense. On defense, BC plays solid and doesn't have to gamble as FSU doesn't have the play makers to turn the game.
Boston College 28, FSU 20
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Nov. 3, 8pm ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Texas A&M comes into this one unranked with a record of 6-3. The Aggies lost last weekend 19-11 to Kansas. The Aggie offense hasn't been all that great this year behind quarterback Stephen McGee. McGee is the teams leading passer and rusher. The Aggies average 29.8 points per game and 404.1 yards per game. They will need McGee to play the best game of his career to take down the Sooners in Norman.
The Aggie defense has been even worse this year. A team that has historically been known for the "Wrecking Crew" defense is not so much wrecking, but reeking. The Aggies give up 22.3 points per game and 401.1 yards per game. Most of those yards come through the air though. That will get them blown out against the Sooners.
Oklahoma is currently ranked #5 in the country with a record of 7-1. The Sooners are coming off a bye week that let them have 2 weeks to prepare for the Aggies. The Sooners offense is ranked #2 in the country in scoring offense with an average of 44.5 points per game and ranked #19 in total offense averaging 449.1 yards per game. The Sooners are led by quarterback Sam Bradford and running backs DeMarco Murray and Allen Patrick. Juaquin Iglesias and Malcolm Kelly are Bradford's top targets in the passing game.
On defense the Sooners are just as good. They rank 11th in scoring defense giving up 16.6 points per game and rank 11th as well in total defense giving up 298.8 yards per game. I look for this talented defense to bottle up McGee and shut out the Aggies.
I don't see anyway the Aggies will put it together to upset the obviously more talented Sooner team. The Sooners are in Norman. The Aggies haven't played well on the road this year as they've lost 2 of their 3 road games so far. On top of that the offense struggled in both those games as well as last week against Kansas. I see Oklahoma picking up their 1st shutout of the year in this game.
Oklahoma 31 Texas A&M 0
Austinwolv's add:
The Ags are floundering and simply are not good enough to pull any upset in this game, unless the Sooners simply decide to take the week off. Sooners actually get off the gas pedal and play a lot of younger guys, as this one will be in-hand in the 3rd quarter.
OU 34, A&M 9
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