| Posted : Friday, October 19 2007 / 12:39 PM |
|
|
Week 8 predictions
This article was written before the game last night and are the weekly NCAA football predictions from forum mods SeminoleDynasty and Austinwolv.
 |
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
Managing Editor/Owner
 |
SeminoleDynasty would like to speak on the behalf of all prognosticators and say please football Gods, "Give us a break"! I don't know about the rest of you, but this college football season has not gone as I would have envisioned in my wildest dreams. Had I told you before the season that the South Florida Bulls out of Tampa, FL would be in the drivers seat in the middle of October to play for the National Championship, you know you would have laughed at me and called me an idiot. Some of you might be anyway.
The point is Austinwolv and SeminoleDynasty are having a harder time picking winners than Rex Grossman does holding onto the ball and I doubt to many others are doing much better. Austinwolv and myself didn't have that great a week again in week 7 as we both finished 3-3 for the week and are both 24-18 for the year. For week 8 the guys have chosen South Florida @ Rutgers, Florida @ Kentucky, Auburn @ LSU, Tennessee @ Alabama, Texas Tech @ Missouri, and Michigan @ Illinois.
South Florida @ Rutgers
Oct. 18, 7:30pm ET ESPN
SeminoleDynasty's take:
South Florida is still rolling and coming off a 64-12 whipping of their rival Central Florida this past weekend. They are #2 in the BCS and as I stated above in the drivers seat to play for the National Championship. The Bulls are led by quarterback, Matt Grothe, who scored 4 touchdowns this past weekend against the Knights. Grothe has been a steady leader for the Bulls and has powered the Bulls to a #28 scoring offense ranking. The Bulls average 35.2 points per game. They have a balanced offense, averaging 393.5 yards per game. The Bulls though go as far as Grothe takes them.
On defense the Bulls have played outstanding all year long. They rank #10 in scoring defense, allowing 15.7 points per game. They also rank 10th in total defense, allowing 284.3 yards per game. USF is also one of the best at getting interceptions as they have 12 on the year. The Bulls defense has played much worse on the road though giving up 23 points in both road games.
Rutgers bettered their record to 4-2 after beating Syracuse 38-14 on Saturday. Rutgers offense is led by their running back, Ray Rice. Rice had his name in the Heisman race early in the year and a big day against the Bulls could vault him right back in the thick of things. Rutgers ranks #18 in scoring offense averaging 37.2 points per game. They are also ranked #12 in total offense averaging 489.7 yards per game.
The Scarlet Knights defense has been very good this year also. They are ranked 16th in scoring defense averaging 17.2 points per game. They are also ranked 13th in total defense averaging 296.8 yards per game. Rutgers has been stingy with passing yards holding teams to 157.7 yards per game. If they can continue that type of defense against the Bulls they have a great shot at the "upset" in this one.
Rutgers will be playing their 6th home game out of 7 so far this season. This will definitely help them in this one. South Florida plays their worst ball on the road. With this being a Thursday night game, I think this favors Rutgers also as Bull fans won't be able to travel that far North in a short work week period. I like Rutgers in this one. I think Ray Rice has another incredible day and puts his name right back in the Heisman talk.
Rutgers 24 South Florida 16
Austinwolv's add:
Given the way this season has gone, the “safe” pick is to go with Rutgers. It is almost a curse to be in the top 10 this year, so expect S. Florida to fall also, especially since Rutgers has the tools to make that happen on both sides of the ball.
Rutgers 27, South Florida 20
Tennessee @ Alabama
Oct. 20, 12:30pm ET SEC-TV/ESPN Game Plan
Austinwolv's take:
Alabama has been a ship, for the most part, on the right course this season with Coach Saban and last week was another win. The Tide puts out a respectable 400 yards per game on offense, while giving up 354 yards per game. That is good for scoring 30 a game, while giving up 21 per game. Not great numbers, but average and on the verge of being solid if some plays go their way. The Tide is fairly balanced between air and ground in their offensive production.
Tennessee has been fairly adept at lighting up the scoreboard this season with senior Erik Ainge leading the attack. The offense has been putting up 425 yards per game and 34 points per game, while having just enough balance to keep pressure off Ainge. The Vol running game isn’t great or even clutch, but is enough to allow Ainge to throw for about 270 yards per game.
The problem for the Vols is defense. They are giving up points like Willie Williams gives up chances to play college football. The rushing defense is soft, giving up almost 160 yards per game. In total defense, Tennessee is ranked #65 in the country (#85 in scoring defense), giving up just shy of 390 yards per game.
Tennessee will need to win in shootout fashion or hope their defense can create some turnovers, while Alabama would be best served to hold onto the ball and keep it away from Ainge. Generally, a senior QB will add advantage for a team, but with a poor defense and having to play at Alabama, expect the Vols to struggle.
Alabama 34, Tenn 28
SeminoleDynasty's add:
The only reason I'm going to take Alabama in this one is they are both even and the thing that tilts the game in favor is home field advantage. I'm going to take Alabama for that reason.
Alabama 27 Tennessee 17
Florida @ Kentucky
Oct. 20, 3:30pm ET CBS
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Florida have had a week off after losing 2 straight. The Gators did suffer a bigger loss this past week though when walk on Michael Guilford died in a motorcycle accident. The loss will weigh heavily on them this week. The Gators are ranked 14th in the country with a record of 4-2. The Gator offense is still rolling at 12th in the country in scoring with an average of 39.7 points per game. The Gators also rank 25th in total offense with an average of 449.5 yards per game. The Gators offense is led by sophomore quarterback, Tim Tebow. The Gators will go only as far as Tebow can take them.
The Gator defense is nothing to crow about giving up 21 points per game. Their pass defense has been their downfall this year. They've given up 230 yards per game and only have 5 interceptions on the year. Their run defense has been very tough only giving up an average of 94 yards per game. The Gators haven't gotten much pressure on the quarterback either which accounts for that poor pass defense.
Kentucky is coming off a huge win over LSU in 3 overtimes, 43-37. The Wildcats are now ranked #8 in the country with a record of 6-1. The win also helped them keep track in the SEC East at 2-1. The Wildcats offense is led by quarterback Andre Woodson who has the Wildcats offense ranked 7th in scoring at 42.7 points per game. The Wildcats also is ranked 17th in total offense. If Woodson doesn't implode like he did in Columbia 2 weeks ago, the Cats will be in good shape for the Gators poor passing defense.
The Kentucky defense has been another story. The Wildcats give up an average of 26.4 points per game. They give up tons on the ground at 194.7 yards per game. They will need to contain Tebow's running game if they want to win this one and stay in the National Championship hunt.
I think the Gators will come in pumped to play in this one, leaving the loss of Guilford behind them for a bit, and Urban Meyer will have a game plan ready for the Wildcats. Kentucky is coming off a 3 overtime emotional win over the #1 team in the country. That is going to take a toll. I think the Gators will play one of their best offensive games of the year in Lexington and come out with a close shoot out victory.
Florida 38 Kentucky 34
Austinwolv's add:
Going to agree with Nole on this one, as the week off and a reset is what the Gators needed. I expect to see a refocused group take it to a worn-out Kentucky squad.
UF 45, Kentucky 30
Texas Tech @ Missouri
Oct. 20, 3:30pm ET ABC
Austinwolv's take:
Missouri has been quietly stomping through the season at 5-1 behind the standout play of QB Chase Daniel, who has surpassed 2000 yards passing while also proving to be a minor rushing threat. Missouri’s lone loss came in Norman, as they lost 41-31 to a very good Oklahoma squad. Looking over their schedule, Missouri is still a mystery in that they haven’t beaten many quality teams, but they have put up points on everyone. The rank near the top of the nation in passing and total offense, while putting up a solid 175 yards a game on the ground. Unfortunately, the Tiger defense is average at best, giving up 24.5 per game and over 400 yards per game. The Tiger pass defense is one of the worst in the nation, in fact, while the rush defense is average.
The Red Raiders will throw the ball. A lot. As in 500 yards per game. They treat running backs like water boys, only handing the ball off enough to allow their QB to catch up on signals from the sideline. Tech is feeling good, coming off a 35-7 beat down of Javorskie Lane’s guaranteed win prediction. Tech also puts up 50 points per game, but they also have played an easy schedule while leading the nation in total offense. Unfortunately, Tech also gives up some yards, ranking #70 in rush defense and #16 in pass defense. The Red Raiders are giving up 20 points per game, which is an average number except when you review their schedule. However, in the past two games against average B12 opponents, they only gave up 12 points per game.
Expect the Tigers to use what they can of their advantage in the ground game to keep the ball away from Texas Tech. Both offenses have the ability to score a lot, which is compounded by the fact that both defenses are terrible.
Missouri 47, TT 41
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I agree with Austin this will be a shootout. Last one with the ball wins. I'm simply going to once again go with the home team to win. Missouri has played Oklahoma well and beat Illinois to open the year. Missouri gets the ball last and makes it count.
Missouri 48 Texas Tech 45
Michigan @ Illinois
Oct. 20, 8pm ET ABC
Austinwolv's take:
Michigan enters this game on a hot streak after the wrist-slitting start to their season. Mike Hart has been steady, putting up consistent numbers against every opponent this season, while senior QB Chad Henne is back from injury and knocked the rust off in the shelling of Purdue. The WRs are still dangerous and are healthy. Hart injured an ankle in the first half of the Purdue game and sat out the second half, as the Wolverines had a large lead. Early reports say he’ll be good to go against the Illini, but if he isn’t, depth at running back is very shallow with backup Brandon Minor also leaving the Purdue game with what looked like an ankle injury. Young speedster Carlos Brown would need to shoulder the load, but that would put more pressure on Henne, who is not playing quite as well as expected of a senior. Regardless, when Henne plays, the Wolverines put up 37 points per game, compared to 28 per game when he’s been out.
The Wolverine defense is playing much better after the embarrassing first two games, giving up only 13.6 points per game since. With the two ugly games factored in, Michigan ranks #37 in the country in total defense (#48 against the pass; #37 against the run).
Illinois has put together a nice season thus far, with their losses coming to an improved Missouri team in an early shootout and a head-scratcher against Iowa last week. The Illini only put up 6 points, after they had been averaging 31 a game previously. The offense relies heavily on the rushing game of Rashard Mendenhall and QB Juice Williams, while having just a bit of passing threat with Arrelious Benn, the super freshman. The Illinois passing game is rather weak compared to most.
The Illinois rush defense has played fairly all year, giving up just over 100 yards per game, but their pass defense is ranked #95 in the country. However, the Illini are only giving up 18 per contest, which is the important number.
Luckily for Michigan, this running/passing threat of Juice Williams does not pass very well or else Michigan fans would be losing sleep this week with nightmares of Armanti Edwards and Dennis Dixon. Michigan is fairly stout against the run and will likely pay extra attention to Benn and Mendenhall on passing plays, as Illinois doesn’t have many other weapons. The question is which Illinois team will show up….the one that plays turnover-free to beat Wisconsin or the one that gives the ball away to Iowa?
On defense, Illini will have the ball moved on them, unless Michigan handicaps itself again with bland playcalling.
Michigan 35, Illini 19
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Michigan is playing more like their preseason ranking now and I don't believe the Illini will be able to handle Henne and Hart. Illinois puts up a fight for 3 quarters, but Hart puts Michigan on top to stay in the 4th.
Michigan 31 Illinois 17
Auburn @ LSU
Oct. 20, 9pm ET ESPN
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Auburn comes into this one ranked 18th in the country with a record of 5-2. They are also in the thick of the SEC race with a 3-1 record. The Auburn offense hasn't done much and proved it with a 9-7 win over Arkansas this past weekend. Their kicker Wes Byrum has been their most valuable player this year with game winners over Florida and Arkansas. The Tiger offense is averaging 25.6 points per game with only 335.1 yards per game. Quarterback Brandon Cox needs to improve vastly for the Auburn offense to start moving the ball better. It's a surprise that runners Brad Lester and Ben Tate have been able to run the ball even without the help of a passing game as both average over 80 yards per game and over 4.5 yards per carry.
The Auburn defense, along with Byrum, has been what keeps the Tigers winning. Auburn was able to hold Arkansas's fearsome duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to a mere 85 yards total on the ground. No where near their usual 100 yards a game each total. That is one heck of a defensive game. They rank 9th in the country in scoring defense, holding teams to 15.6 points per game as well as ranked 8th in the nation in total defense (279 yards per game). They've also been holding passing teams down with a 169.7 yards per game.
LSU is coming off their 1st loss of the season and lost their #1 ranking. LSU lost to Kentucky in 3 overtimes 43-37 on Saturday in Lexington. LSU is still ranked high at #5 with a record of 6-1. They are right in the thick of the SEC West at 3-1. LSU will try to take their frustrations out on a very strong defensive minded Tiger team and this one will probably decide the SEC West.
The LSU Tigers will need for quarterback Matt Flynn and running back Jacob Hester to continue to bolster their vaunted offense. The Tigers rank 15th in the country in scoring offense at 37.7 points per game. Their defense is usually setting up a short field for the Tigers so they do not rank in the top 30 in total offense. Wideout Early Doucet could be back for this game as well.
The Tiger defense let them down this past week against Kentucky. A defense that gives up only 14.1 points per game gave up 43. That scoring defense is ranked 5th in the nation. The Tigers total defense is ranked 2nd at 223.1 yards per game, but gave up 375 against the Wildcats. Defensive end Kirston Pittman and crew should be back to normal against a mediocre Auburn offense.
I see LSU getting a lot of frustration out in this one. I think the Auburn defense will keep it close for 3 quarters, but LSU will eventually hit the knockout punch in the 4th quarter. Too much talent for the Auburn's defense to overcome is my belief.
LSU 31 Auburn 17
Austinwolv's add:
Auburn is a play-it-close team that will be in trouble if LSU jumps out early. Auburn simply won’t be able to keep up, and LSU refocuses for an impressive showing.
LSU 41, Auburn 16
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
