| Posted : Thursday, October 4 2007 / 16:53 PM |
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Week 6 NCAA predictions
The week 5 predictions will never be spoken of again. Like so many top 10 teams that bit the dust, both guys seemed to take the week off in their predictions.
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The week 5 predictions will never be spoken of again. Like so many top 10 teams that bit the dust, both guys seemed to take the week off in their predictions. Austinwolv finished 0-6 while SeminoleDynasty finished 1-5. OUCH! Both guys are still above .500 though with Austin sitting at 17-13 while Seminole sits at 18-12. Both guys plan to rebound big though in week 6. For week 6 the guys have chosen 6 games. Those 6 are Kentucky @ South Carolina, Virginia Tech @ Clemson, Florida @ LSU, Wisconsin @ Illinois, Georgia @ Tennessee, and Oklahoma vs Texas.
Kentucky @ South Carolina
Oct. 4, 7:30pm ET ESPN
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Kentucky comes into this game ranked #8. Their highest rank in years! They are undefeated at 5-0 and are coming off a 45-17 win over Florida Atlantic. Not only that, but the Wildcats lead the SEC East. Kentucky's offense is rolling behind record breaking quarterback Andre Woodson. Kentucky ranks 5th in scoring at 46.6 points per game, and 12th in total yards. Woodson ranks 17th in passing yards in the NCAAs. His touchdown to interception ratio is a whopping 16 to 1.
On defense the Wildcats need to toughen up. The Wildcats have given up 22 points per game and almost 400 yards per game (384.8). You would think that total would be skewed because of playing Louisville, but Kentucky has given up more rushing yards than passing this year (908 passing to 1016 rushing). Their run defense is one of the worst in the NCAAs. The Cats will need to tighten up their run game if they want to leave Columbia with a win.
South Carolina will be ranked 11th and 4-1. The Gamecocks are coming off a 38-21 win over Mississippi State this past Saturday. The Gamecocks switched quarterbacks last week going from Blake Mitchell to freshman Chris Smelley. Head coach Steve Spurrier had seen enough and decided to go to his freshman. Smelley looked good throwing for 279 yards on the day and 2 scores. The Gamecocks have a pair of talented runners as well in Corey Boyd and Mike Davis.
The Gamecock defense ranks 16th in scoring. They've had a bend but don't break attitude so far this season. They've been very good against passing though only giving up 532 yards in 5 games. They will need to continue to be that good against a strong Wildcat team.
My thinking is Kentucky will put points up, but will they get enough against the Gamecocks on a short weeks worth of practice. Spurrier will have the Gamecocks ready to play and with a good running game, I think the Gamecocks take this one in close one.
South Carolina 27 Kentucky 21
Austinwolv's add:
Nole called this one right in my opinion. South Carolina is not spectacular on offense, but has enough on the ground to keep Kentucky honest, allowing Gamecock passing to work when needed.
The difference in this game will be the Gamecock defense, and they are fundamentally sound enough and playing with confidence to take care of business.
Gamecocks 24, Kentucky 21
Wisconsin @ Illinois
Oct. 6, Noon ET ESPN
Austinwolv's take:
Wisconsin comes into this game with the favorite hype and unbeaten. Last week, the Badgers beat MSU in a high-scoring game that doesn’t seem commonplace for the Badgers over the years. However, this year’s squad has been scoring frequently, while the supposed strength of the team, the defense, has given up more than expected. QB Tyler Donovan has been playing solid football in a very balanced attacked that is yielding 50% yards on the ground and 50% yards in the air. PJ Hill is of course the load to look out for.
On the other side of the field, the Illini are an improved team this year, posting some solid wins. Last week, Illinois beat PSU, which brought their floundering offense to town. However, the Illinois attack is all on the ground and doesn’t show much threat through the air. The Illinois offense just does not have enough playmakers to keep defenses from stacking the line. Sensational WR Arrelious Benn will have to have some major plays to back the Badger defense off.
Wisconsin’s balance on offense will help keep Illinois off the field.
Badgers 31, Illinois 20
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Wisconsin has been playing like they want to give one up it seems. I think they'll play another close one, but just pull it out by the skin of their teeth in Illinois.
Wisconsin 28 Illinois 20
Oklahoma vs Texas
Oct. 6, 3:30pm ET ABC/ESPN Gameplan
Austinwolv's take:
Both teams are coming into this game after shocking losses. OU’s loss was a sloppy affair, with OU handing the game over to Colorado in the second half. On the other hand, Texas just got plain beat, as QB Colt McCoy was pummeled by Kansas State.
Thus, my take is that both games do help indicate how both OU and Texas have been playing this season. With that in mind, OU is the clear favorite.
OU has gotten great play from young QB Sam Bradford, as well as explosive and dependable runners in Allen Patrick and young stud DeMarco Murray. On the outside, the Sooner receivers haven’t up killer numbers, but that is because Bradford has been able to spread the ball around. Where it matters is the huge amount of yardage and points that OU has been putting up. Do note that their early season schedule was rather weak however. On defense, OU has played pretty well, not allowing more than 27 points in a game this season.
Texas on the other hand has not been playing well on offense. This is a team that doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do on offense and as a result, McCoy takes a beating on hits. When Texas puts it together, they are quite explosive as evidenced by their second half beatdown of TCU. The defense also plays inconsistent, as the linebackers have varied from great play to fundamental mistakes. However, that inconsistency this season looks like it will bite them against OU.
OU 38, Texas 24
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I agree with Austin here. Oklahoma is a better team than Texas. Texas has almost lost a couple others this season and hasn't looked nearly as good as the Sooners have. Oklahoma wins easily here.
Oklahoma 45 Texas 20
Georgia @ Tennessee
Oct. 6, 3:30pm ET CBS
Austinwolv's take:
Georgia comes into this game after a couple solid wins, including a tight one against an improved Alabama squad. Young QB Matt Stafford has taken some lumps, and the offense has suffered from the lack of consistent passing threat. However, the ground game has been fairly solid. The defense has had to be the strength of the team, as that unit has not allowed more than 23 points in any game this season.
Tennessee had a week off to prepare for Georgia, after a fairly easy win over Arkansas State. The Tennessee ground game has not been very strong this year, which is a detour from Volunteer football in the past. Most of the Vol offense has been through the air with experience, big QB Erik Ainge. They’ll need Ainge and the wide receivers to play well, as a solid Bulldog defense will load up to take any threat of Vol rushing game away.
The Tennessee defense has allowed a ton of points this season, putting the offense into shootout conditions. The bright spot has been the sporadic playmaking ability of freshman CB Eric Berry.
Basically, an average Bulldog offense takes on a poor Volunteer defense, while a pass-happy Vol offense that has an experienced QB goes up against a strong Bulldog defense. The wildcard is the game being at Tennessee. Those factors give a slight lean to the Vols.
Tennessee 19, Georgia 16
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I'm going against the conventional wisdom in this one. Even though Tennessee is at home, I believe the Bulldogs will pull this one out. Stafford makes enough big plays along with the Bulldog defense to pull out the win in Knoxville.
Georgia 24 Tennessee 20
Virginia Tech @ Clemson
Oct. 6, 6pm ET ESPN
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Virginia Tech will be 4-1 and 15th in the country coming into this match-up. The Hokies beat UNC 17-10 on Saturday. The Tech offense has been like watching paint dry this season. They've gone with 2 different quarterbacks and neither has been very effective. It's not so much the quarterback situation that has been the problem, but more so the offensive lines inability to protect the quarterback and open up holes for the running game. The offensive line will have to show an incredible improvement going up against the Tigers this week.
The Hokie defense has been the reason the Hokies are 15th and 4-1. While the offense has lagged, the defense is the usual Hokie strength. The Hokies are ranked 13th in scoring defense, holding teams to 15 points per game. They've only allowed 606 yards on the ground in 5 games. The Hokies will need to continue to hold down the run game if they want a win in Clemson.
Clemson is coming off their 1st loss of the season, falling 13-3 in Atlanta against Georgia Tech. The Tigers are 4-1 and ranked #22. The high powered Tigers running game was shut down against the Yellow Jackets last weekend. The Tigers, led by James Davis and C.J. Spiller, were held to 34 yards rushing. Quarterback Cullen Harper did not look good either and is a liability for the Tigers. If he can't get going, teams are going to stack the line against them.
The Clemson defense has been decent this season. They rank 22nd in scoring defense, but seem to not play every down. The Tigers have had issues getting pressure on the quarterback at times and their run defense gives up huge chunks during lapses. The Tigers special teams haven't been very special either as that helped Georgia Tech take the game last weekend on a blocked punt and fumble on kickoff. Both led to points. Not only that, but kicker Mark Buchholz missed 4 field goals on the day. The Tigers have had punts blocked and bad snaps on punts already this season before that game even.
The Tigers will probably get a win here, but it will be another hard fought game. They can't afford to have any lapses on special teams as Tech is one of the best at taking advantage of special teams mistakes. Playing at home will definitely help the Tigers going against a team that hasn't found itself on offense and has a freshman at quarterback. I'm taking the Tigers at home.
Clemson 24 Virginia Tech 13
Austinwolv's add:
I agree with Nole on this one, as I think the Tech defense will define this game if Clemson can’t effectively back them off with some early passing yards.
Clemson 24, Tech 17
Florida @ LSU
Oct. 6, 8:28pm ET CBS
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Florida's National Championship hopes haven't gone down the drain with the loss last week to Auburn. The Gators are still ranked 9th after the 20-17 loss to the Tigers on Saturday. At 4-1, the Gators can still make a run just like last year, but that run will need to start against #1 LSU. The Gators offense behind quarterback Tim Tebow was shut down for the most part against Auburn. Even after the loss the Gators still rank 11th in scoring offense at 42.8 points per game. The Gators are going to need to find a running back if they expect to get another title this year. The Gators high flying offense looked pedestrian against the Tigers throughout the game. Tebow, and crew will need to step it up against the Tigers this week.
The Gators defense hasn't been getting pressure on their opponents and frankly haven't looked very good. That lack of pressure has caused the passing defense to look poor. Unless the Gators can up that pressure this week, the Gator secondary is going to be in for a very long day. The Gators are giving up 19.6 points per game so far after 5 games. While their run defense has looked very good, their pass defense has given up almost 250 yards per game. That will have to stop against LSU.
LSU is the new #1 team after jumping USC this week. The Tigers are rolling and hitting on all cylenders for the most part. The Tigers are 5-0 after sleep walking through their game against Tulane last week. Despite winning 34-9, the Tigers looked apathetic in the 1st half against the Green Wave. LSU ranks 16th in scoring offense at 39.8 points per game behind the arm of quarterback Matt Flynn. Flynn, and his offensive mates will need to keep pouring it on if they expect to crush the remaining hopes the Gators might have at a SEC or National Title.
The LSU defense has been even more impressive than the offense. LSU ranks 2nd in scoring defense giving up a minuscule 6.4 points per game. The Tigers are also tops in total defense, holding teams to 174.6 yards per game. The Tigers have only given up 195 yards on the ground through 5 games. That is incredible! The Tigers match up very well against Tebow and company.
My thoughts are LSU rolls. They are at home playing a team that is coming off a depressing loss. The Gators haven't looked sharp in all phases of the game. LSU has looked awesome and their defense will be pumped for this one in Baton Rouge. Urban Meyer and the Gators need to come up with some gimmick to stay in this one.
LSU 38 Florida 17
Austinwolv's add:
Again, I think Nole called this one the right way. An experienced, aggressive LSU defense will give the offense good field position. Meyer will try some trick plays, but the Tigers will be ready for them and will have some of their own. The other big aspect is the home crowd which will be on their game……it is a night game, Florida. Watch out. Gators get a late TD to make it look closer than it really was.
LSU 31, Gators 21
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