| Posted : Thursday, September 27 2007 / 1:41 AM |
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NCAA Week 5 predictions
Austinwolv moved to 17-7 on the season after going 4-2 in week 4 while SeminoleDynasty also moved to 17-7 after going 5-1 in week 4.
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Austinwolv moved to 17-7 on the season after going 4-2 in week 4 while SeminoleDynasty also moved to 17-7 after going 5-1 in week 4. For week 5, the guys have chosen 6 more key match-ups. They are West Virginia @ South Florida, Alabama @ Florida State, Clemson @ Georgia Tech, Penn State @ Illinois, California @ Oregon, and Maryland @ Rutgers.
West Virginia @ South Florida
Sept. 28, 8pm ET ESPN2
SeminoleDynasty's take:
West Virginia comes into this game rolling. The Mountaineers have had little trouble with their 1st four opponents starting off 4-0 for the season. Last week the Mountaineers rolled 48-7 over East Carolina. The running game for West Virginia led by running back Steve Slaton has been superb so far this season. West Virginia ran for nearly 400 yards of offense against the Pirates last week. Slaton ran for over 100 yards on the day. Quarterback Pat White had a great day as well going 18 of 20 passing for 181 yards and running for another 42 yards.
The West Virginia defense has been stingy as well. On Saturday the Mountaineers held East Carolina to 160 yards of total offense and 9 first downs. The Mountaineers have had one of the better run defenses in the 1st four games so far this season. That has been a huge factor in their 4-0 start and will help them as they go along this season.
South Florida is a surprising 3-0 and ranked as well. South Florida knocked off North Carolina 37-10 in week 4. South Florida also knocked off Auburn in week 2. USF is led by quarterback Matt Grothe who passed for 230 yards and a touchdown against the Tar Heels. The athletic QB also added 35 yards on the ground. South Florida will continue to rely on Grothe as they fight for the Big East crown and a win against the Mountaineers could see that dream become a reality.
The Bulls defense was very tough on the Tar Heels giving them only 164 yards of total offense on the day and taking the ball away 4 times through the air and adding 4 sacks. The Bulls were equally as tough at Auburn getting 5 turnovers and holding the vaunted Tigers running game to 125 yards. If the Bulls can toughen up their run defense against the Mountaineers, we could see another Bulls upset.
This one could be a special day in Tampa for the Bulls. They have heart, determination, and a good coached ball team. The problem is they don't match up against White, Slaton, and the awesome offense they are going to face. I'm going to take West Virginia to come out with a very close win.
West Virginia 28 South Florida 23
Austinwolv's add:
There have been a number of upsets this season with the little guy taking out the historical giant or at least highly-hyped teams every week, moreso than any season that I can recall in a number of years. That being the case, South Florida has an average rushing game, which I believe they’ll need to rely on in order to keep the WVU offense off the field. If WVU can prove they can tackle consistently and stop USF push in the trenches, WVU wins going away in this one.
WVU 31, USF 16
Penn State @ Illinois
Sept. 29, Noon ET Big 10 Network
Austinwolv's take:
Penn State is coming off another loss to the Wolverines this week, but has the talent to put it to the Illini. The question will be if the playcalling will help or hinder PSU who has had trouble getting the ball to its’ playmakers where they can do something with it. With a talented TE and receivers, along with serviceable running backs, the PSU offense could be potent if QB Anthony Morelli can play like a senior QB should be.
Penn State’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball where fierce LBs Sean Lee and Dan Connor are absolute monsters, covering the whole field. The Lion defensive line is stout enough to hold their own, while the secondary is adequate.
Illinois has a nice 3-1 record, but those wins came against questionable opponents, while the loss came against an average Missouri squad. Illinois did step up with a win on the road at Syracuse however, so they showed they can beat an average team with a loud crowd on the road. That means they have some fight in them, and you’ll see that against a tough PSU defense.
Illinois is largely ground-powered at this point with a large percentage of their yards being on the ground. QB Juice Williams is young and still learning how to be a good passer, but he’s dangerous on the ground and has just enough of a passing threat in stud freshman receiver Arrelious Benn to keep an defense at least thinking about a big passing play. However, the next leading receiver is their starting running back, Rashard Mendenhall. That does not bode well for the Illini against a fierce PSU LB corp.
I look for PSU to come out of their offensive funk and their defense to slow up the Illinois rushing attack.
PSU 31, Illinois 20
SeminoleDynasty's add:
Penn State got bit last week and I don't see a very good coached team against a talented, yet poorly coached team getting them this week. I'm going to take Penn State over the Illini.
Penn State 34 Illinois 20
Clemson @ Georgia Tech
Sept. 29, 3:30pm ET ABC
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Clemson is looking like the crown of the ACC along with Boston College. If the Tigers want to stay equal to the Eagles, they are going to have to do what BC did 2 weeks ago and that is beat the Yellow Jackets. So far this season the Tigers are rolling, starting off 4-0 and 2-0 in the ACC. Quarterback Cullen Harper has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers as his workman effort lets running backs James Davis and C.J. Spiller do their thing on offense. Harper in last weeks game against N.C. State passed for 25 of 39 and 268 yards in his 1st road game. That should help keep his confidence up going into Atlanta. The Tigers rely heavily on Davis and Spiller on offense. These two helped the Tigers rush for 340 yards as both gained over 100 yards rushing on the day against the Wolf Pack last week.
On defense the Tigers rely on stopping the run. The Tigers held the Wolf Pack to 55 yards on the ground last week. The Tigers have had a spotty special teams this year giving up points on muffed punts, and kickoff returns. They will have to play much better in Atlanta.
The Yellow Jackets are coming off their 2nd straight loss. Virginia upended the Jackets 28-23 on Saturday one week after the Jackets fell to Boston College. The Yellow Jacket offense is led by running back Jonathan Dwyer, but that running game has stalled the last few weeks. The Yellow Jackets will have to get that going against the Tigers. Quarterback Taylor Bennett still hasn't looked like the leader the Jackets need. He will have to play much better if the Jackets are to beat the high octane Tigers in Atlanta.
The Yellow Jacket defense hasn't been that bad stopping the run, but they have been poor against the pass. If the Jackets allow Harper to get his timely passes and open up the Tiger running game it could be a long day in Atlanta. The Jackets defense needs to continue to take the ball away from their opponents as well.
My feeling is that the Tigers offense is just a little too high powered with the speed of Spiller, Davis, and Jacoby Ford. Georgia Tech is reeling and I don't see them getting that much needed win over the Tigers.
Clemson 31 Georgia Tech 14
Austinwolv's add:
have to agree with ‘Nole on this one, in that Clemson just has a touch more offensive playmakers and imaginative playcalling to get those guys the ball than Georgia Tech has. However, GT has a tough defense that will try to make Clemson throw since Harper is still relatively unproven and did not exhibit much throwing power early in the season.
Clemson 24, GT 20
Maryland @ Rutgers
Sept. 29, 3:30pm ET ABC
Austinwolv's take:
Maryland comes in after a loss to Wake Forest. This season, the Terps have lost games you would expect them to and won games you would expect them to. Statistically, Maryland is very balanced on the ground and through the air, but they lack playmakers. The Terps will again have to rely heavily on Keon Lattimore.
Maryland hasn’t had good success shutting down running games, so that doesn’t look like it will change this week as they have to slow up Ray Rice, who is averaging 5.8ypc this year.
Rutgers has been rolling up the points, but their schedule hasn’t been much of a test thus far. QB Mike Teel is hitting 66% of his passes while two of his receivers are averaging better than 25 yards per catch. Throw in some nice rushing averages for the Rutger’s RBs, and you’ve got a team that has put up big plays and scored consistently.
However, they haven’t really played a top-tier team yet with Navy being the strongest on the schedule. Because of this, it is tough to say the Rutgers defense will be solid like last year’s edition, so the jury is out.
There are a lot of unknowns in this game, but early appearance is that it will come down to the team that can establish their running game. With the talented Ray Rice and some very productive receivers, Rutgers has the advantage on paper.
Rutgers 33, Maryland 24
SeminoleDynasty's add:
I see this game kinda like the game Maryland played a few weeks ago against West Virginia. Maryland is soundly coached, but they are missing play makers and talent. Rutgers has a very talented runner who will pound it all game long against them and make them tired in the 2nd half. Maryland makes a game of it early, but Rutgers pulls away in the 2nd half.
Rutgers 31 Maryland 14
California @ Oregon
Sept. 29, 3:30pm ET ABC
Austinwolv's take:
Oregon comes into this game after hanging 50+ points in their last two games. Despite a slow start against Stanford, a squad that is improved in their own small way, Oregon lit up the scoreboard in the second half. QB Dennis Dixon has been on a tear this year and is second on the team in rushing, accounting for 15 total touchdowns in 5 games. RB Jonathan Stewart has been playing well also, averaging 7.7ypc in his big, strong running style. Throw in speedy, dependable wide receivers, one of which is huge at 6’5”, 240lb (Jaison Williams), and you’ve got a potent attack.
The problem for Oregon is defense. The Ducks are susceptible to mistakes and poor tackling, and they lack the dominating interior DL that made their defense tough just a couple years ago. Rushing yards are to be had against the Ducks.
Cal comes into this matchup off a conference win over Arizona. The Bears are getting solid production (63%) out of QB Nate Longshore, although he hasn’t thrown a lot of TD passes. Cal has gotten good production on the ground, mainly from Justin Forsett. The playmaker in this game is DeSean Jackson, who needs a big game to keep Oregon’s offense off the field. A key return from him could sway momentum over to the Cal side.
Cal’s defense isn’t anything to be overly proud of either, as they’ll line up nicely for one series to get a stop, but then let a RB blow by them due to poor tackling in the next series. The Bears have give up plenty of points in each of their games, and I don’t expect that to change this week.
In this showdown of unbeatens, Oregon has the homefield advantage, and the QB that can make something out of nothing when plays break down. Dixon likely won’t struggle like he did last year against Cal. Oregon has played a slightly easier schedule than Cal, but the Bears will be in a hostile environment against a solid team.
Oregon 38, Cal 33
SeminoleDynasty's add:
This should be a great game. Big Pac 10 game in a great stadium between 2 up and coming teams. What more could you ask for? Cal and Oregon are very similar, but the key here is the home field advantage. Oregon's Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest to play at and I don't see Cal getting it done in this tight showdown.
Oregon 31 California 23
Alabama @ Florida State
Sept. 29, 5pm ET CBS
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Alabama will be coming into Jacksonville with their 1st loss of the season suffered in overtime to the Georgia Bulldogs. Alabama has played 2 straight overtime games and this will be their 3rd straight tough game. The Crimson Tide will come into this one still ranked though. The Alabama offense is led by running back Tery Grant. Quarterback John Parker Wilson will need to raise his game up against a tough Seminole defense.
The Alabama defense needs to step up for the Crimson Tide. They've now allowed Arkansas and Georgia to stay toe to toe with them the last 2 weeks. They've given up 450 to the Razorbacks and 377 to the Bulldogs in back-to-back weeks. They will be facing a Seminole offense still looking for their breakout game. The Tide don't want to be the one to allow that breakout.
The Seminoles had an off week and have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide. The Seminoles are coming off a 16-6 win over Colorado 2 weeks ago. The Nole offense has not looked impressive, but has made some small strides with quarterback Drew Weatherford under center. The most impressive improvement has been the running game. The Noles are actually moving the ball on the ground and their offensive line is making holes at times. Weatherford has been protected for the most part and he really needs to step his game up for this one in Jacksonville. Running back Antoine Smith will key the Noles run game. Wide receiver Decody Fagg needs to hold onto the ball and show he is the team captain and senior leader.
The Noles defense has been stout after 3 games. The Noles starting tackling a lot better in Boulder 2 weeks ago, but the defense will be without 2nd leading tackler Geno Hayes for this one. Hayes was arrested a week ago after causing a disturbance at a local Tallahassee bar. That will be a huge blow for the Noles going into this big game. Dekoda Watson will have to step up even more and help the linebacking crew plug the void left by Hayes. The Noles have been very tough against the run and will need to bottle up the Crimson Tide running game to have a shot and allow their own offense to get rolling.
My thought is Alabama is going to be coming off a tough loss and back-to-back overtime games so this should hurt the Tide. Playing in Jacksonville will be like a home game for the Seminoles and the Noles have had 2 weeks to prepare. I'm going to take my Noles to take this one and show some major improvements on offense.
Florida State 28 Alabama 17
Austinwolv's add:
‘Nole’s reasoning is solid, but personally I have no faith in the Seminole offense from what I’ve seen this season so far. The receivers have been terrible and beating an average-at-best Colorado team is not impressive. FSU does have a tough defense, but Alabama has been getting their offense rolling with what would term average-to-good talent but not playmakers. On the flip side, Alabama’s defense will be the decided factor in this game in my opinion. If they show up, I think the Tide has a great chance on the road.
Alabama 28, FSU 23
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