| Posted : Thursday, September 20 2007 / 1:51 AM |
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NCAA Week 4 predictions
Last week wasn't a great week for the prognosticators of Madden Planet. Austinwolv didn't do to badly with a mark of 4-2, but SeminoleDynasty finished at .500 with a 3-3 mark.
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Last week wasn't a great week for the prognosticators of Madden Planet. Austinwolv didn't do to badly with a mark of 4-2, but SeminoleDynasty finished at .500 with a 3-3 mark. For week 4, the guys have decided on 6 games. Those games are Alabama @ Georgia, Texas A&M @ Miami, South Carolina @ LSU, Penn State @ Michigan, Washington @ UCLA, and Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State.
Texas A&M @ Miami
Sept. 20, 7:30pm ET ESPN
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Texas A&M will come into this one ranked. The Aggies are coming off a 54-14 pasting of Louisiana Monroe and have scored over 35 points in all 3 games played this year. The Aggies haven't faced any real competition yet so this will be a major test in Miami. A&M amassed 547 yards on the day against the Ragin Cajuns with 237 of those coming through the air. That is the most they've had passing this season. Quarterback, Stephen McGee, will have to do a lot better than he has in the first 3 games for the Aggies to keep that ranking in Miami. McGee and A&M do most of their damage on the ground, but that won't cut it against the Canes.
The A&M defense hasn't been very good so far. The "Wrecking Crew" allowed over 250 yards passing in 2 games and over 200 on the ground against Monroe. That will not cut it against a revamped Miami offense going back to 2006 starting quarterback, Kyle Wright. The Aggies will have to shore up their defense for this Thursday night tilt in Miami.
The Hurricanes licked their wounds with a 23-9 win over Florida Atlantic this past weekend. After being destroyed in Norman the week before, the Canes put away the Panthers early getting up 13-0 at the half and 23-3 after 3 quarters. Under former and new starting quarterback, Wright, the Canes looked balanced. Runningback Javarris James rushed for nearly 100 yards on the day.
The Canes defense hasn't looked bad except for against Oklahoma this year. Who hasn't looked bad against the Sooners though? The Canes held the Panthers to 264 yards total offense on the day with only 105 in the air. The Cane defense will be needed to hold the Aggies ground game and allow the offense to get some points on the board.
I see the Canes getting back on track and winning at home against the ranked Aggies. The Hurricane defense will do just enough to make sure they get the win.
Miami 20 Texas A&M 13
Austinwolv's add:
If this wasn’t at Miami, I would say that the Aggies could pull it out behind a relentless ground game of battering Lane into a defense. However, Miami has the home-field advantage as well as an experienced quarterback that has looked good in spurts. Couple that with Miami always have a running back or two that can break open a game, and the Hurricanes have the breaks in this one.
Miami 28, TXA&M 16
South Carolina @ LSU
Sept. 22, 3:30pm ET CBS
SeminoleDynasty's take:
South Carolina is ranked and coming off a 38-3 win over South Carolina State. The Gamecocks have already been tested with a win over Georgia between the hedges 2 weeks ago. Against S.C. State, the Gamecocks gathered 408 yards on the day with 223 of those on the ground. Both starting runningback, Corey Boyd, and back up, Mike Davis, gathered over 100 yards on the day. The Gamecock ground game will have to carry the Gamecocks along with their defense if they are to win in Baton Rouge.
The Gamecock defense has had a good 2 weeks holding the Georgia Bulldogs close to 300 yards and then holding the S.C. State Bulldogs to 264 yards total offense Saturday with only 68 of those through the air. The Gamecock defense also 6 sacks and 4 turnovers. If the Gamecocks even want to stay close in this one, the defense will have to do a herculean job.
LSU has looked unstoppable through 3 games. They utterly destroyed Virginia Tech 2 weeks ago and did the same to Mississippi State and Middle Tennessee State in weeks 1 and 3. Middle Tennessee State who ran roughshot over Louisville a week ago could do nothing against the Tigers. LSU's offense has looked outstanding with backup quarterback, Ryan Perrilloux, filling in for starter, Matt Flynn who was out with an injury. LSU didn't miss a beat as Perrillous put up nearly 300 yards passing on the day.
The LSU defense shut down a Blue Raiders offense that gathered 555 yards on Louisville a week earlier. LSU's defense held the Raiders to 90 total yards on the day with 9 on the ground and 81 through the air. LSU added 6 sacks and had their 2nd shutout in 3 games. LSU's defense is running on all cylinders which should help against a good Gamecock running game.
My thinking is LSU rolls once again. Their defense is hitting and making plays. LSU is at home. LSU looks like a team in mid season form. I don't see any reason they shouldn't do well unless they are looking ahead to Florida.
LSU 34 South Carolina 17
Austinwolv's add:
South Carolina is playing good defense this year and playing with a lot of effort. However, that isn’t enough, as LSU’s defense is even better and more talented. LSU’s D will put the Tiger offense in favorable field position and they’ll score plenty while exposing the lack of gamebreaker talent at the skill positions of the Gamecocks.
LSU 34, Gamecocks (because that name always makes you laugh, admit it) 17
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Sept. 22, 3:30pm ET FSN
Austinwolv's take:
The Red Raiders haven’t scored less than 45 this season. Granted, they haven’t played the toughest of teams yet, but did put up 45 on an UTEP program that has been respectable mid-major for a couple years now. Last week, TT rolled Rice by 35 points.
The problem is that TT has never been able to stop a good team. Nobody doubts they can put up points. This year’s edition of the Red Raiders has experienced Harrell at QB and an impressive freshman receiver Michael Crabtree who already has 8 of the 14 touchdowns that Harrell has tossed.
Oklahoma State also has what was thought to be an explosive offense. However, injuries and inconsistent play has hurt the Pokes, along with a soft defensive front. This past week against Troy, the starting center was likely lost for the season with a broken leg, and we all know the center is key to an offensive line. Against quality teams…and Troy….OKST has been giving up points with ease. Cowboy running backs are putting up nice rushing yard averages, but haven’t found the endzone. The quarterbacks have thrown 4 INTs to only 5 TDs this season.
Texas Tech has solid experience at the QB position, along with an offense that puts up points every game. If Tech can stand up to OKST’s attempts to rush the ball and get off the field, Tech rolls.
Texas Tech 38, OKST 23
SeminoleDynasty's add:
With an experienced quarterback, Tech will put the points up in this one. Getting no pressure on Harrell will be a killer for the Cowboys. The Raiders take it easy.
Texas Tech 35 Oklahoma State 17
Penn State @ Michigan
Sept. 22, 3:30pm ET ABC
Austinwolv's take:
Find yourself a quarter. Flip it. There’s your winner in this game. The easy call is to say that Penn State takes this one. However, PSU is 0-8 against Michigan in their last 8 meetings. PSU also hasn’t played a quality team yet. FIU and Buffalo can’t even sniff App. St’s team. Thus, between both Penn State and Michigan, only Oregon is regarded as a quality opponent and we know what happened there.
Penn State returns experience at QB and a number of solid receivers, although Derrick Williams has not lived up to the hype since two seasons ago. The Penn State running backs are adequate but hardly dangerous. Thus, the Nitts turn to their defense which is fairly experienced and features very good LB play with Sean Lee and Dan Connor.
Michigan is still a huge question mark, except for a couple well-knowns. Hart will run left over Jake Long with ease. Adrian Arrington and Greg Mathews are good receivers who can make plays. Mario Manningham can make plays if he shows up to play. However, who will be throwing them the ball? An experienced senior QB trying to come back from a sprained knee in Chad Henne or the young gunslinger Ryan Mallet who is huge and talented, but a true freshman. Even with Henne, the Nittany Lions will match up very well with the Wolverines. On defense, the only thing to welcome is that PSU doesn’t run spread option, and that PSU senior QB Anthony Morelli probably still has nightmares of getting planted every other play against Michigan last year. The Wolverine secondary is not a strength however, so it will rest of the DL and LBs to play better to limit PSU’s rushing and time in the pocket.
Even though the game is in Ann Arbor, the odds are against Michigan and the conservative prediction is to pick the defense that is regarded better.
Penn State 24, Michigan 19
SeminoleDynasty's add:
2 weeks ago, I picked Michigan to take their frustrations out on Oregon. I was wrong. This time I'm going to take Michigan again. The reasons are Michigan is at home, and with a W on the board; the Wolverines can now get back to playing ball with no pressure. Michigan's defense can get to Morelli, so the key is stopping the ground game. With either Henne or Mallet, Michigan will get their points.
Michigan 27 Penn State 17
Alabama @ Georgia
Sept. 22, 7:45pm ET ESPN
SeminoleDynasty's take:
Alabama is coming off a come back win against Arkansas. The Tide won it 41-38 Saturday by driving 73 yards in just over 2 minutes. The Tide passed for over 300 yards on the day with quarterback John Parker Wilson showing he could do the job. Alabama has yet to lose this year and have played 2 tough SEC games already. If Alabama has found a consistant passing game under Wilson, their running game led by Terry Grant will be that much better.
The Crimson Tide defense couldn't contain Arkansas and their ground game, but many teams have a hard time stopping Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Alabama had held both Western Carolina and Vanderbilt on the ground to under 100 yards each. The thing is Georgia will try to move the ball through the air primarily. How will the Crimson Tide defense handle QB Matthew Stafford and the Bulldog offense?
Georgia comes in at 2-1 with their lone loss to South Carolina 2 weeks ago. Georgia took Western Carolina behind the woodshed and beat them 45-16 Saturday. Georgia didn't start out on fire, but Stafford and crew got on track to put up 362 yards of total offense with 222 of those through the air. Georgia's defense has played well all year but their offense let them down against the Gamecocks in week 2. Stafford will have to play well and get support from his running game if Georgia doesn't want to fall another game in the SEC East.
The Georgia defense has done well holding teams to close to 250 yards of total offense per game. They didn't lose the game against the Gamecocks and will keep Georgia in this one. The Bulldogs will need to take away the running game and force Wilson to beat them in the air.
I see Georgia giving Alabama their 1st loss by playing tough mistake free ball and the crowd between the hedges helps.
Georgia 24 Alabama 13
Austinwolv's add:
Stafford is young and will be inconsistent, but playing at home will help in this big matchup. Expect him to play well and ‘Bama to struggle against a solid Bulldog defense.
Georgia 27, Alabama 10
Washington @ UCLA
Sept. 22, 10:15pm ET FSN
Austinwolv's take:
If you are an UCLA fan, I don’t envy you. It must be hard knowing which team will show up each week. UCLA has experience and a solid offense that can share the ball between effective runners Kahlil Bell and Chris Markey. They even have an experienced quarterback in Ben Olson. However, football isn’t played on paper and UCLA cannot make the mistakes that Utah greedily took to a 44-6 bombing of the Bruins last week. 3INTs, fumbles, and porous pass protection helped dig a huge hole that the UCLA defense could not fill. The UCLA defense will have its’ hands full again this week and will need to perform to their preseason hype. The bad news for UCLA is that they have the Huskies coming to town. The good news is that they are playing at home.
Young QB Jake Locker is a weapon. One of the next rising stars in college football has played well in both throwing and running the ball. In fact, he leads the team in rushing, which is a testament to his skills, but also a bad sign since Washington lacks a dangerous running back. The Huskies do have some solid receivers, one being the huge 6’-3”, 240lb Marcel Reece who can also run. However, Washington is fairly young and still learning how to win as Ty Willingham continues to try building a program. The defense is inconsistent. They will stuff a couple runs, but then give up a 15-20 yard run, only to repeat the cycle again on the next set of downs. This was part of the story as a pedestrian, patient OSU offense put up 30 points on the Huskies in the 2nd half of last week’s game, after trailing at halftime. In pass defense, Washington plays more comfortable.
UCLA, playing at home and likely responding with some pride after their poor performance last week, should have the advantage against the Huskies as long as they don’t hand the ball over to their opponent like last week.
UCLA 27, Washington 20
SeminoleDynasty's add:
UCLA looked BAD against the Utes last week. Washington didn't look to bad in their loss to Ohio State and has played well this year. Playing at UCLA will be tough on a young Huskie bunch, so I'm going to take UCLA in a close one thanks to Olson.
UCLA 28 Washington 17
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